2 Negative Signals on Turkey’s EU Bid

Bot signaled that the December 17th decision could append these two points to it’s conclusion. This outcome is contrary to Turkey’s expectations, and fails to meet the EU’s Progress Report, which was released on October 6.

After the meeting, Gul insisted that the Progress Report was the only criterion for accession, but Bot undermined the report when he said that the final decision rested with the leaders of the member countries, and not the Commission for Enlargement. Bot said that the heads of state of EU members are the "Masters of the Field."

The Turkish delegation left the meeting troubled by the possibilities of a conclusion on December 17th that falls short of the October 6th Progress Report. The following points illustrate additional concerns:

French President Jacques Chirac "3rd Way" formula.

There are three possible outcomes on December 17th. The first are successful negotiations with Turkey, concluding in membership. (The 1st way)

Negotiations begin, but are then terminated. (2nd way)

Negotiations are generally successful except for a failure to compromise on some important points. The eu then offers turkey a "privileged partnership". (3rd way)

German Christian Democrats, the Austrian government and the Greek Cyprus administration are entertaining Chirac’s 3rd Way. Ankara said that this is not an alternative and if it is offered, it will be refused. Bot told the Turkish delegation that the 3rd Way could possibly be included in the December 17 conclusion report.

Diplomatic say Bot’s attitude could be the product of three different kinds of influences:

Bot is supports Turkey and receives much criticism for his stance. As term president, he may feel compelled to demonstrate an appropriate amount of distance from his preferences and send the message, "I too am at an equal distant from Turkey."

His party is split over Turkey and he must demonstrate his fortitude, and give "no concessions to Ankara."

Other member countries are certainly exerting pressure.

Possibility of "Permanent Restrictions of Free Movement" implies that Turkish citizenry is second class citizenry. If the December 16th report includes this condition, Turkey will work to remove it during negotiations. The Commission has suggested a permanent halt on free movement, one of the four pillars of EU citizenry.