Politics

Why Pakistan Or India Might Want Turkey’s Unused Russian S-400 Missiles


A former Turkish minister has made a novel suggestion for how Turkey could dispense itself of its unused, strategic Russian-built S-400 Triumf air defense missile systems without antagonizing Moscow. Ankara could offer them for sale to other countries with friendly relations with Russia, namely Pakistan or India. Both of these rival countries might be interested in acquiring these missiles—which have remained unused since Turkey bought them five years ago—albeit for markedly different reasons.

Turkish businessman and politician Cavit Caglar, who was Minister of State in the early 1990s, made the suggestion in an Aug. 5 interview with Turkey’s T24 newspaper.

“If it were me, I would sell the S-400s,” Caglar unequivocally declared, noting there are potential customers ready. When asked if Turkey’s close ally Azerbaijan, which received advanced S-300PMU-2s from Russia in 2011, would be one such customer, Caglar replied: “No, Pakistan will buy them, India will buy them.”

He added that selling the S-400 would make it easier for Turkey to get modern F-16s and regain admission into the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, which it was removed from in 2019 by Washington following the contentious acquisition. U.S. Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland suggested in January that Turkey could potentially reenter the F-35 program if it resolved the S-400 issue. Before its removal, Turkey had a lucrative role in manufacturing over 900 F-35 parts for operators worldwide and planned on acquiring 100 F-35As for its air force.

Furthermore, Caglar anticipates Russia will “excuse us” on the matter.

While out of government for decades, Caglar played an important role in repairing badly strained Turkey-Russia relations after Turkey shot down a Russian bomber over the Syrian border in November 2015. For his efforts, Russia awarded him the Order of Friendship in 2017. Consequently, his anticipation of how Russia would respond to Turkey selling the S-400s carries considerable weight.

His suggestion of India and Pakistan over Azerbaijan, a major importer of Turkish military hardware, is also noteworthy. Turkey has close relations with Pakistan, including military ties, and, together with Azerbaijan, has, in recent years, conducted joint military exercises with Islamabad to improve interoperability.

Turkey never had close defense ties with India, which has primarily bought Russian weaponry and also conducted joint military projects with Israel, such as developing the medium-range Barak 8 air defense system, known in Indian service as LR-SAM and MR-SAM. India recently terminated a contract with Turkey to build support ships for the Indian Navy.

Unlike Pakistan, India has already bought S-400s, ordering them in 2019. Unlike NATO member Turkey, India has so far avoided incurring any U.S. sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act law, commonly known by the acronym CAATSA, for this acquisition.

It’s unclear if New Delhi could incur CAATSA sanctions in the future if it makes another significant transaction buying advanced Russian armaments. However, if it seeks more S-400s and wants to avoid sanctions, buying those Russian systems from Turkey could prove ideal, especially if Ankara offers them for less than the estimated $2.5 billion it paid for them.

Given Islamabad and Ankara’s close relationship, that scenario seems less likely than a sale to Pakistan, which already considered buying S-400s in the late 2010s. Acquiring Turkey’s Triumfs would enable the Pakistani military to familiarize itself with the system and even train against it, which would be invaluable considering the S-400 is its arch-rival’s most advanced system.

Turkish officials have repeatedly rejected proposals to transfer the systems to Ukraine or sell them. One U.S. senator even proposed in 2020 that Washington buy Turkey’s S-400s.

While rejecting the idea of getting rid of the S-400, Turkey has also declared its indigenous high-altitude Siper system a capable rival of the Russian Triumf. Ankara plans to establish a national multilayered air defense dubbed Steel Dome, which will likely consist of the Siper complemented by other Turkish-made medium and short-range systems.

India’s S-400s will form the upper level of its emergent multilayered air defenses, with the other levels covered by the Israeli-Indian Barak 8 and India’s indigenous medium-range Akash. In Turkey’s case, Steel Dome will consist mainly, if not entirely, of indigenous systems. It’s unclear whether the S-400 will have any role in the Steel Dome initiative, indicating Ankara may want to keep it in storage or as a nonintegrated standalone system.

On the other hand, successfully standing up the Steel Dome will again highlight the lack of use Turkey has for the S-400. Selling to a third country without angering Russia could prove increasingly tempting for Turkey. And while it may no longer seek F-35s for its air force, now that it has its sights set on developing the indigenous TF Kaan fighter, Ankara would doubtlessly benefit from returning to manufacturing parts for that stealth jet.

In light of all these factors, something like Calgar’s out-of-the-box proposal could finally come to pass some time in the not-too-distant future.



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