Turkiye, UK forge landmark defense and security deal

ANKARA: Two NATO allies, Turkiye and the UK, have sealed an agreement to bolster their collaboration on defense and security initiatives.

The joint statement of intent, inked by British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and Turkish Minister of National Defense Yasar Guler on Nov. 22, aims to establish a framework for joint endeavors that are anticipated to fortify the security and prosperity of both nations while contributing to global stability, the UK government said via its official website.

The strategic alignment, during Shapps’ official visit to Ankara, has stirred discussions about the prospective emergence of a new European defense axis and its potential to address Turkiye’s impending fighter aircraft deficiency.

This closer partnership with the UK could amplify Turkiye’s bargaining power and strategic influence in the pursuit of acquiring new American F-16s.

Turkiye values the policy insights and outreach from British political circles and elites. Britain could lead in advancing issues like the Swedish accession and claim credit for such endeavors.

Soner Cagaptay, Analyst

“Following the signing, activity will see closer collaboration between both countries’ defense industries, the identification of possible joint training exercises in the Mediterranean, and the exploration of security support around North Africa and the Middle East,” the official statement said.

The timing of this accord is also significant. Turkish Defense Minister Guler recently said that despite Germany’s opposition, Ankara was in talks with the UK and Spain to purchase 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.

Given the prolonged delays and uncertainties in securing new F-16 jets from Washington, the prospect of expediting the acquisition of Eurofighters via the UK deal is still not guaranteed because the export decision needs consent from all four partners in the Eurofighter consortium — the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain.

Analysts speculate that Turkiye could leverage its strengthened diplomatic ties with the UK to persuade Germany not to obstruct the deal.

The UK’s BAE Systems, a key member of the consortium and with close ties to Turkiye, collaborates with Turkiye’s national Turkish Aerospace Industries on designing the indigenous 5th-generation KAAN fighter, set to be operational by 2030.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute, underscored the importance of the Turkish-UK relationship, particularly in contrast to Turkiye’s less favorable ties with France, the US and Germany.

He highlighted Britain’s proactive approach in forging deeper ties with Turkiye after the 2016 failed coup attempt, a gesture appreciated by the Turkish leadership compared to the delayed responses from other NATO allies.

According to Cagaptay, amid the post-Brexit landscape, the UK seeks to expand its influence among NATO allies, potentially fostering a Turco-British alliance to counterbalance the Franco-Greco bloc.

“Turkiye values the policy insights and outreach from British political circles and elites. Britain could lead in advancing issues like the Swedish accession and claim credit for such endeavors. Ultimately, back-channel negotiations rather than megaphone diplomacy seem to be the optimal approach in engaging with the new Turkiye,” he said.

Turkiye recently notified NATO that the ratification of Sweden’s membership bid would not be concluded by the alliance’s upcoming foreign ministers meeting, underscoring Turkiye’s evolving stance within the NATO framework.

“The UK and Turkiye are two non-EU NATO nations with robust military capabilities and strong defense technological and industrial bases. They can see eye-to-eye in many items on the strategic agenda,” Dr. Can Kasapoglu, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and director of the defense research program of Istanbul-based think-tank EDAM, told Arab News.

Kasapoglu thinks both nations are distant from the “European autonomy delusion” of some NATO nations, and that they grasp the importance of the transatlantic character of any European security architecture.

“Second, the UK, compared to continental Western European countries, is more open to lucrative defense business deals. London’s stance in the Eurofighter Typhoon talks marks a solid reference,” he said.

Kasapoglu said that the UK is now pioneering the quest against Russian aggression in NATO circles. London sees how Wagner, the Russian shadow army, is pursuing its outreach to Africa.

“Turkiye is one of the few NATO nations that can tackle the Russian activity in the continent, as has been the case in Libya. Such a Turkiye-UK partnership in Africa would also augment the US AFRICOM area of responsibility,” he said.

On the Eurofighter Typhoon deal, it is still unclear whether British diplomacy can overcome Germany’s traditional caveats which, in essence, are constraining the German defense industry, Kasapoglu said.

“Should London pull it off, and if the deal extends to latest variants of the baseline, then it would provide the Turkish airpower with the very stopgap solution that it has been looking for — until the indigenous 5th-generation project KAAN kicks in,” he said.

For Kasapoglu, the Eurofighter Typhoon deal would not kill the F-16V modernization.

“One tricky issue to understand is that Turkiye is not looking for a replacement or alternative, the Turkish Air Force, ideally, will operate the F-16Vs and the Eurofighter Typhoon alongside. Surely, such a dichotomy in the arsenal would lead to higher operational costs, but better flexibility and diversification. Besides, compared to the Russian dead-end, the Eurofighter Typhoon is a safe option as to defense diplomacy and sanctions,” he said.