Türki̇ye earthquakes recovery and reconstruction assessment – Türkiye
Executive Summary
Earthquake impact and recovery vision
Türkiye was hit by a series of debilitating earthquakes in February 2023. Even for an earthquakeprone region, the disaster was unprecedented in its scope and the magnitude of the destruction it caused. Fatalities to date number 48 448; 3.3 million people have been displaced; and almost two million people are being sheltered in tent camps and container settlements. Apartment towers and village houses lie in ruins across a vast territory of 110,000 square km.
As emergency response measures continue, the Government of Türkiye has announced ambitious reconstruction plans, including a commitment to rebuild all damaged residential housing. Alongside its own analysis, the Government collaborated with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the World Bank, along with the European Union (EU), in preparing a preliminary post-disaster needs assessment (PDNA) to be published ahead of a donor conference for the people of Türkiye and Syria on March 20, 2023.
The Government assigned the Strategy and Budget Office (SBO) of the Turkish Presidency with the task of preparing the assessment. The partners agreed to adapt the PDNA methodology to the specifics of the earthquake disaster and timeline and to collaborate on preliminary analysis, called the Türkiye Earthquakes Recovery and Reconstruction Assessment (TERRA).
The TERRA presented here comprises of an assessment of the financial impact of the earthquakes, applying modified PDNA methodology, and a “recovery vision.”
The TERRA makes a preliminary conclusion that the impact amounts to 103.6 billion USD, or equivalent to 9 percent of Türkiye’s forecast GDP for 2023. This is a shocking amount, reflecting the almost unfathomable scope of the devastation experienced by Türkiye’s southern provinces. The path to recovery will be challenging and, even given the Government’s dedication of enormous state resources to the effort, will depend in part on support from the international community. The TERRA is designed to help understand the scale of the need and the priorities for reconstruction.
The earthquakes and their impact
Türkiye is located on the highly seismically active Anatolian Plate, on which massive earthquakes occurred throughout history. Since the year 1900, 20 earthquakes with a magnitude of over 7 have occurred in these lands, placing Türkiye among the top-listed countries affected by earthquakes. Türkiye has experienced 269 earthquakes that caused loss of lives and economic damage between 1900 and 2023. Of these, the top three earthquakes that claimed the most lives and inflicted the most severe damage were the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake, the 1939 Erzincan Earthquake, and the 1999 Marmara Earthquake with the epicentre of Gölcük.
On February 6, 2023, two major earthquakes hit Türkiye, with the epicentres in Pazarcık (Mw 7.7; focal depth: 8.6 km) and Elbistan (Mw 7.6; focal depth: 7 km) districts of Kahramanmaraş, at 04:17 and 13:24 local time, respectively. On February 20, 2023, another earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 6.4 occurred, with the epicentre of Yayladağı, Hatay, at 20:04 local time. These earthquakes, all of which are unprecedented in recent history in terms of magnitude and coverage, caused major devastation in a total of 11 provinces.
The earthquakes claimed the lives of more than 48,000 people, wreaked damage on over half a million buildings as well as communication and energy structures and led to significant financial losses.
The total population of the 11 provinces affected by the earthquake was registered as 14,013,196 persons in 2022, accounting for 16.4% of the national demographic. While 13,553,283 persons in this population (96.7% of the total) live in provincial and district centres, the rest (459,913 persons and 3.3% of the total – except for the population in rural areas of metropolitan municipalities) lives in towns and villages. Additionally, 1,738,035 persons in the earthquake-affected region comprise the migrant population residing in Türkiye under temporary protection.
According to data from 2021, there are 3.8 million employed persons in the disaster region and the share of regional employment in national employment is 13.3%. 2.3 million people are in formal and 1.5 million people are in informal employment. Informal employment across the disaster region is around 39%.
The total number of buildings in the region is close to 2.6 million. Of such building stock, approximately 90% is residential, 3% is public buildings, and 6% is workplaces. The number of housing units in the 11 earthquake-affected provinces in 2022 is 5.6 million, with a 14.05% share in the total housing stock across Türkiye.
The majority of the production activities in the region are carried out in the service, industry and agriculture sectors. The provinces affected by the earthquake had a share of 9.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2021, and generate approximately 79 million USD of national income. The per capita national income level in the region falls significantly short of the national average. Taking the 2021 data into consideration, the average per capita GDP of the 11 earthquake-affected provinces is calculated as 5,924 USD.
The 11 earthquake-affected provinces contributed by 0.98 points to the national economic growth, recorded at 11.4 in 2021. The 11 earthquake-affected provinces have an 8.6% share in exports in 2022. Gaziantep stands out with a 4.4% share in total exports, while Adana, Hatay and Kahramanmaraş have a share of 1.6%, 1.2% and 0.6 respectively. Gaziantep is the sixth province with the highest export rate. The share of the 11 earthquake-affected provinces in the 2022 imports is 6.7%. Gaziantep and Hatay stand out with a share of 2.3% and 2.1% in total imports, respectively.
The total textile product exports across Türkiye is 14.2 billion USD for 2022, while the earthquakeaffected provinces have an export rate of 5 billion USD and a 35% share in total textiles exports. For exports by sector according to the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) classification, or in terms of their share in total exports by product or sector, the prominent items include carpet, cerealpulses, fruit-vegetable (wet, dried) products, textiles and raw materials, leather products, steel and furniture, paper and forestry products.
Shedding light on the extent of the damage caused by the earthquake, the report includes the assessments regarding major losses of life as well as the damage, losses and needs related to physical assets. It was difficult, as well as time-consuming, to compile the information from the field, as the earthquake-affected region covers a vast area and the infrastructure and public administrations in the relevant provinces were also affected by the earthquake.
In order to overcome such difficulties, data was collected in coordination with numerous institutions and organizations under the coordination of the Strategy and Budget Office (SBO). Such data covers a multitude of areas, particularly post-earthquake actions, damage to physical assets, and the support provided with regard to public finance.
The damage/costs caused by the earthquake, on the other hand, were addressed by sector in terms of convergence with international standards. In this context, the damage were examined by social sectors (housing, education, healthcare, employment, environment); infrastructural sectors (water and sanitation, municipal services, energy, transportation, communication), and economic sectors (agriculture, mining, manufacturing industry, tourism). Furthermore, recommendations on short-, medium- and long-term objectives were presented for each sector.
The data from relevant ministries, unit costs and institutional opinions were combined and reflected in the report through the sectoral expertise of SBO, in order to ensure the utmost accuracy of the damage and loss data for each sector. The data from field are continuously updated as of the publication date of the report. Therefore, the damage picture may be revised over time.
The earthquakes that occurred in the region once again underlined the importance of building earthquake-resilient cities and infrastructure. In addition to the major losses in human life, the damage to the physical capital is extremely costly. The burden of resources to be spent on reoperationalizing the cities is also very heavy.
The most prominent component of the burden imposed by the earthquake on the Turkish economy is the damage in housing units by 54.9% (1,073.9 billion TRY; 56.9 billion USD). The second largest damage is the destruction of public infrastructure and damage to public service buildings (242.5 billion TRY; 12.9 billion USD). The damage incurred by the private sector except housing is estimated at 222.4 billion TRY (11.8 billion USD). This category includes manufacturing industry, energy, communications, tourism, healthcare, education sectors and damage to small tradespersons and houses of worship.
Further, considering the losses to the insurance sector, revenue losses of tradespersons, and macroeconomic impacts, it is estimated that the total financial burden of the earthquake disaster for the country is 2 trillion TRY (103.6 billion USD), which is equal to 9% of GDP forecast for 2023.
Recovery vision
In light of the extensive damages caused by the earthquakes, this report recommends a range of changes in construction standards and regulatory policies to ensure that settlements across the country, both those newly constructed and those already standing, are resilient to earthquakes and other disasters. Additional measures are also proposed to promote resilience against disaster risks, based on the participation of all stakeholders (citizens, local administrations, public agencies, professional chambers and academia).
These proposed measures are detailed in the recovery vision, which builds on the damage assessment presented in the report to flesh out a recovery vision for the region and identify some preliminary priority interventions in each sector and sub-sector.
The TERRA outlines a set of key principles to ensure that the recovery from the earthquake is resilient, inclusive, green and sustainable. Across the sectors and priorities identified, Build Back Better principles need to be applied for resilient structures, institutions and communities, and Disaster Risk Reduction should be put into practice at all levels of education, policies and practices. Accountable decisions made with the participation of those affected will be crucial, particularly in considering the future of cities and towns built in areas of high seismic risk.
Further, the “leave no one behind” principle of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) should be applied in all phases: emergency relief, recovery and reconstruction, to ensure that groups with specific needs receive sufficient assistance and enjoy equitable opportunities.
Employing green, nature-friendly solutions is seen as key to a sustainable future, to reduce energy demands and erect climate-proof infrastructure in line with Türkiye’s 2053 net zero target.
Putting these guiding principles into practice will be paramount to ensure that recovery efforts are adequate to the scale of needs. The affected provinces already hosted half of Syrians under temporary protection and international protection applicants and status holders. Massive displacement raises fears of labour shortages, while the numbers of residents in need of social services has soared.
These are daunting challenges, but they also provide opportunities for strategic investments to support a new vision for the region and put the economy on a green, resilient and inclusive path.
In order to seize this opportunity, the recovery process needs to apply resources strategically, in a prioritized fashion. The TERRA provides some initial recommendation for key sectoral priorities and short, medium, and long term actions to be considered by the Government of Türkiye, local institutions, private sector and civil society, and supported by international actors.
Social recovery priorities include the need to provide social assistance and protection for the vulnerable, strengthen public services in earthquake zone and outside, rebuild health and education services, and expand psychosocial support. For the economic recovery, it will be critical to define a shared vision for regional economic revival and growth and to devise policies to attract and retain a skilled workforce. Climate-proofing can be incorporated into measures to revive the region’s agriculture. Local businesses will need support to modernize and adopt digital technologies, and the region will benefit from “buy local” commitments, including in relief efforts.
Infrastructure recovery and reconstruction should capitalize on science-based spatial planning and regulation for housing reconstruction and urban revival, rehabilitate and modernize transport and communications networks. Particularly given the region’s unique history, preserving and safeguarding cultural heritage will be vital to retaining local identity (an important factor that can dynamize the recovery) and also to spurring a revival in tourism.
For the environment, it will be critical to restoring energy provision in line with a net-zero vision, to ensure safe debris management with resources recycled, and to prioritize nature-based solutions, including ecosystem restoration.
