Turkey preparing its package proposals

Denktas was quite clear. He is saying, "Give me my sovereignty, get the solution." In this respect there has been no change in his stance. According to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) president, the Turkish Cypriot side will not back down on this issue.

I reminded him that everybody was waiting for the Turkish side to be stirred into action. He said, "No. They are waiting not for the package but for the outcome of the December election."

Who will win the election? According to Denktas the opposition is becoming divided. The outcome can go either way. He says, "Europe is doing all it can to win over the opposition."

Noting that no incidents have occurred since the "gates" were opened, Denktas says this is thanks to the extraordinary efforts the Turkish side’s administrators have made. He says that many an incident have been covered up.

He is quite confident.

Stressing that they have plans for the KKTC’s future even if no solution were to be found by May 2004, he said, "We will declare the north to be a free zone just like Dubai."

Well, why was that step not taken in the past?

Denktas said that that had been the biggest mistake, that the Turkish side remained at the negotiating table too long and "lost" because of that.

A new leaf is being turned in Cyprus. We will see what comes out of the package.

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What is happening regarding Cyprus?
Is the UN or the U.S. or the EU making any preparations? Are we going to be faced with a new Annan Plan? No, everybody is waiting.

Attention focuses on Turkey for the obvious reason. If a solution were to be found by May 2004 — the date on which Greek Cypriots will take their place in the EU’s decision-making mechanisms — the Turkish side would benefit from that more than anybody else would.

That is the deadline for them to produce a solution and to take their place in the EU together with Greek Cypriots. If no solution can be found Greek Cypriots will win.

If the KKTC waits for Turkey to seek full membership in the EU then the KKTC will have to accept the EU rules. In other words it will get nothing beyond minority rights.

The advantages the Annan Plan offered to the Turkish side would no longer be available. Greek Cypriots’ only hope is that Ankara will not make a move, that this lack of a solution will continue, that Denktas will keep up this "lack of a solution" position.

To sum up, Ankara holds the key and it will not be possible to get rid of the Cyprus obstacle unless the Turkish government reaches a decision.

Somebody must start doing their homework
To avoid this trap Turkey must put worth a new proposal, one that would envisage certain changes in the Annan Plan.

If preparations are being made — Denktas has given the message, "We are getting prepared," — that would be the best possible news. In Cyprus we are approaching the last bend on the road. If we fail to take the bend this time too our losses will grow. There is a so little time left until May 2004.

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TSK approach to Cyprus changing
In the past, the generally held conviction was that the military had a more hardline stance on Cyprus. During the debates on the Annan Plan, the commanders had kept saying that reaching a solution in Cyprus would not be easy at all and certain columnists that are seen as kinds of spokesmen for the military had reflected a similar line.

Yet, in recent weeks those who have talked with General Staff officials have reflected a different approach.

According to that, contrary to the generally held conviction, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) does not have a totally rigid stance on Cyprus. In fact these latest reports give the impression that the TSK embraces a bizonal, bicommunal formula rather than a solution that would be aimed at defending the Turkish Cypriots community against Greek Cypriots.

It is not clear to what extent the General Staff cadres think in that vein. However, one feels clearly that the military do not want to be the symbol of a lack of a solution in Cyprus.

If the Turkish side manages to come up with a new plan this will be a sign indicating that this impression reflects the truth.