The Autocrats’ Playbook Doesn’t Guarantee Victory

Populist leaders might injure democracy, but it is very hard to kill. In Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been forced into a runoff election — something he managed to avoid in both 2014 and 2018. In Thailand, voters have resoundingly rejected parties associated with the junta that has ruled since 2014, giving them only 15% of the seats. And, in India, voters in the southern state of Karnataka, which includes the technology hub of Bengaluru, handed the opposition Indian National Congress party the most decisive mandate in 34 years.

Erdogan appears likely to triumph in his runoff, and Thailand’s democrats will struggle to govern given that the legislature’s upper house is composed of junta loyalists. (Some 40% of the Thai senate are in the military or police.) The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s sharp reversal in Karnataka does not necessarily imply that Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself will struggle to win next year’s national elections.