Svalbard: A New Steppe of Russia and Turkey Under the Sovereignty of Norway?

This is of course a little detail, but Turkey firstly has to ratify the treaty. Then, it will draw a roadmap if it really wants to be active in Svalbard. When I look at the last two states who became members to the treaty, (North Korea (yes!) and Slovakia), they had the same ambitions as Turkey in terms of economic activities.

However, since 2016 and 2017, they didn’t show any engagement with the region.

Turkey has increasing political relations with Russia. Especially, as changing geopolitical dynamics by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the friendship of Erdogan and Putin changed and consolidated as bosom friends. Ankara shows its hybrid politics in this case as well.

It sells weapons to Ukraine to hit Russia but also conducts grain diplomacy with Moscow by displaying its steppe identity.

Turkey is physically far from both the Arctic and Svalbard. It does not seem logistically easy to participate in economic activities there or to deliver raw materials from there to Turkey. However, in this 7+1 model where relations are tense, it may be interesting to see Turkey, an ally of Russia, to become a member of Svalbard Treaty.

In case of a dispute between Russia and Norway over Svalbard, Erdogan (if he is still in power) would take this opportunity and dare to act as a mediator. Because Erdogan’s domestic self-image is nourished by his mediator role in any irrelevant regions sells very well. Also, Svalbard could be a bypass for Turkey to knock on the Arctic Council’s door again.