Express View on Turkey’s election results: Erdogan’s hour

Erdogan’s victory with 52 per cent of the vote, over Kilicdaroglu who received 48 per cent of the votes cast, has given him a sweeping fifth term in office, from the first decade of the 21st century to its third. The result has shown a near equal divide, a polarisation among Turkish voters, with the conservative mainland Anatolians on Erdogan’s side, while the Kurds and the more modern, liberal and secular Turks on the country’s Europe-facing rim, have rejected him.

Sadly, there are no second prizes in elections, only winners and losers, and the winner takes all. The Turkish election brought out clearly that economic misery, shoddy governance, allegations of corruption, the choking of dissent, and mis-steps during a natural disaster are not enough reasons for voters in a democracy to reject a populist leader.

Erdogan pulled ahead of his rival because more voters are on the side of his religious-nationalist, conservative agenda, and trust him to lead the country at a time of great changes in the world. Much to the irritation of the US and Europe, the independent-minded Erdogan is an outlier in NATO, steering a firm neutral course on the war in Ukraine. Turkey remains close to Russia — Russian president Vladimir Putin was the first to congratulate Erdogan — and supplies weapons to Ukraine. His leverage with Moscow saw it give passage to Ukrainian ships carrying wheat that eased a global grain crisis. He alone has stood between Sweden and its membership of NATO.

Now that the Turkish strongman has won yet another mandate, he may use it to better effect Sweden’s entry into the alliance as a bargaining chip for the F16s he wants from the US.

Turkey’s stakes in the Syrian conflict and in Egypt make it an important player in the region. Erdogan appears to have pushed down his Ottomanic ambitions and has been steadily improving ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Despite Erdogan’s pro-Pakistan positions on Kashmir, Delhi has considerable engagement with Ankara, including in defence contracts. With Turkey too wooing India for business, especially tourism, this engagement is set to grow.