Brussels Playbook: Qatar probe fallout — Hungary crunch time — Turkey’s threat

GOOD MORNING. This is Nick Vinocur, POLITICO’s editor at large, burning the midnight oil to bring you the latest on the mother-of-all Brussels bribery scandals. Heard some aspect of this that we don’t know about? Get in touch.

DRIVING THE DAY: PARLIAMENT REELING       

PARLIAMENT IN CRISIS AS QATAR ‘CORRUPTION’ PROBE SHAKES BRUSSELS: With details still emerging in what’s been described as the European Parliament’s worst-ever alleged bribery scandal, lawmakers gather in Strasbourg today for what promises to be an epic session full of finger-pointing and solemn vows to “clean house.”

We need to talk: The heads of the Greens, Left and Socialists & Democrats groups are calling for an immediate debate about the bribery scandal, with several lawmakers also pushing for Vice President Eva Kaili to be stripped of her parliamentary immunity. More on that below.

But first, the facts: As of Sunday night, Kaili, who has been suspended from the S&D and her Greek Pasok party, remained in Belgian police custody along with three others, including her partner, Francesco Giorgi, an MEP’s assistant; former MEP Pier Antonio Panzeri; and, according to Italian newswire Ansa, Niccolò Figà-Talamanca, the head of campaign group No Peace Without Justice. More here from Hannah Brenton.

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Charge sheet: All have been charged with “corruption, money laundering and participating in a criminal organization,” according to the Belgian prosecutor’s office, following an investigation that turned up €600,000 in bags of cash as well as troves of electronic evidence. Sarah Wheaton has the full rundown.

Bottom line: The four accused face claims that they took gifts and money from Qatari interests to influence political decisions in the run-up to Qatar’s hosting of the World Cup. The government of Qatar has denied wrongdoing. POLITICO has sought comment from Kaili but has not heard back.

Details: Top Parliament officials have been cooperating for some time with Belgian police in the highly-secretive investigation led by prosecutor Michel Claise — including by giving them the green light to seal off several Parliament offices and gather evidence, according to EU Parliament officials.

More details: As part of the investigation, the home of Belgian MEP Marc Tarabella was raided on Saturday evening. Tarabella, who was not arrested, is vice chair of the Parliament’s delegation for relations with the Arab Peninsula and co-chair of the institution’s sports group. Parliament President Roberta Metsola had to fly back to Brussels from Malta to attend the search of Tarabella’s home, a requisite under Belgian law that didn’t apply to Kaili, her office said in a statement.

That’s rich: Greece’s government — under fire over reports of spying on opposition leaders — used Kaili’s case to suggest that wiretapping of politicians can be justified. “Those who have expressed absolute positions on whether law enforcement authorities should keep an eye on political figures or not may have to approach them with greater skepticism,” government spokesman Giannis Oikonomou said Saturday.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW       

SHOWDOWN IN STRASBOURG: Metsola meets with the heads of Parliament’s political groups upon arrival in Strasbourg today and gives a speech to the chamber during which she will address the “elephant in the room,” Parliament officials said.

Visas, not so much: Lawmakers are expected to vote in favor of holding a debate on the scandal, officials said, while a planned vote on visa liberalization for Qatari citizens, among others, is likely to be punted back to committee.

Hammer drop: Likely on Tuesday, Parliament’s Conference of Presidents — Metsola plus the heads of political groups — will meet to discuss terminating Kaili’s mandate as vice president. Assuming the Conference agrees, a proposal for a final vote could be presented to the plenary as early as Tuesday, the officials said. A two-thirds majority vote is required to end a term of office. 

Where things get tricky: In the wake of Friday’s revelations, politicians are split between those who say the probe has uncovered “a few bad apples” and those who say it reveals much deeper flaws in how EU institutions deal with lobbying, especially on behalf of foreign states.

Europe for sale: Raphaël Glucksmann, a French S&D member who heads Parliament’s committee on foreign interference, is in the latter camp. “I don’t believe there are others [taking money to lobby on behalf of foreign states]; I’m convinced of it. For too long, European elites have allowed themselves to be corrupted.”

‘Crazy’: Glucksmann recounted how he and other lawmakers had been gobsmacked by the attitude of S&D lawmakers during a closed-door debate on a resolution condemning Qatar’s human rights record. “It was crazy … Before the vote, some members were making a sales pitch for Qatar. The atmosphere in the group was extremely tense.”

Idc who you are: The resolution ended up being adopted by a narrow margin, but not before S&D lawmakers had added several amendments praising Qatar’s labor reforms. “We will not save our democracy without a real cleanup effort,” added Glucksmann. “I don’t care if they are social democrats.”

Dial an ethics cop: Among the proposals being discussed is an independent ethics body that would have authority over all EU institutions. But, as Sarah Wheaton has reported, the Commission is set to propose a toothless version of the body, without investigation or enforcement powers.

Shadow lobbying: Another sticky matter is lobbying of EU institutions by countries. Unlike company executives, diplomats don’t have to report their contacts with EU officials in the EU’s transparency register of interest groups — a point that German Green MEP Daniel Freund said would have to change. “The EU must improve this immediately.”

Who’s next? As the dust settles, several lawmakers said they expected further revelations to drop. The Belgian police investigation is ongoing, and according to the Belgian daily l’Echo, police are paying special attention to the activities of DROI, Parliament’s subcommittee on human rights.

Schinas’ tweets: More broadly, officials who have repeatedly touted Qatar’s labor reforms, like Commission Vice President Margaritas Schinas, are set to face scrutiny from the public.

HUNGARY CRUNCH TIME       

HUNGARY’S CHOICE: It’s another crucial moment in the Hungary vs. Brussels saga as Budapest will decide today whether to lift its veto on an €18 billion aid package for Ukraine and a minimum global corporate tax rate in exchange for EU countries’ approval of its economic recovery plan. The three issues are coming to a head at a meeting of EU ambassadors scheduled for 6 p.m. today, Paola Tamma writes.

What price is right? Separately, the Council must decide by December 19 what to do with the Commission’s proposal to freeze €7.5 billion of EU funds, confirmed by EU Budget Commissioner Johannes Hahn in a letter on Friday. The Czech Council of the EU presidency will be à l’écoute on what a majority of countries want to do: confirm, reduce the amount, or reject it.

Plan B: Over the weekend, the Council set in motion an alternative route to deliver aid to Ukraine without Hungary’s consent. “The package provides for a structural solution to financially support Ukraine in 2023 … The guarantees for that borrowing will be provided either by the EU budget or by member states,” the Council said on Saturday.

The sidestep: By keeping this option open, the EU26 can request Parliament’s consent at its last plenary session in Strasbourg to ensure payments can reach Ukraine by January — even if Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán sticks to his veto.

Orbán and a hard place: This move is meant to take away leverage from Orbán, who also needs to get a majority of his peers to back the approval of Hungary’s recovery plan by year-end, or risk losing 70 percent of the €5.8 billion in grants connected to it.

SPEAKING OF UKRAINE — FOREIGN MINISTERS COUNCIL: EU countries are set to raise the size of their fund for weapons deliveries to Ukraine by about €2 billion, according to EU diplomats. Ministers plan to reaffirm support for Kyiv and provide updates on training missions for Ukrainian troops.

Global Gateway: The EU’s foreign affairs ministers will today also be briefed on the next steps for Global Gateway, the EU’s infrastructure project to counter the Chinese Belt and Road initiative. Last night, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU countries discussed which projects the EU has to target next year. For von der Leyen, the first year of implementation of Global Gateway “shows the demand for sustainable investments” in partner countries, but for many in the EU, the project still has to prove its value. More here.

IN OTHER NEWS       

TURKEY THREATENS GREECE: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan warned Greece that a missile could hit the Greek capital unless “you stay calm,” heightening tension between the neighboring countries. “If you don’t stay calm, if you try to buy something [to arm yourself] from here and there, from America to the islands, a country like Turkey will not be a bystander. It has to do something,” Erdoğan added.

Nice country you got there: Turkey has stepped up its rhetoric against Greece amid what Ankara sees as a growing military buildup on the Greek Aegean islands, close to Turkey’s coastline. In a repeated, thinly veiled threat, Erdoğan has said: “We can come down suddenly one night when the time comes.” Nektaria Stamouli has more.

BORRELL CONDEMNS KOSOVO ATTACK: The EU’s top diplomat condemned a stun grenade attack on an EULEX reconnaissance patrol, urging “groups of Kosovo Serbs to immediately remove barricades. The attack comes as Kosovo prepares to formally submit an application to join the EU in the coming days. Lili Bayer has the story.

EUROPE’S IRA MOANING: Europe has gone into full freak-out mode over U.S. subsidies it said would harm its industry. But industry representatives and analysts said that by attacking Washington’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Europe was missing the broader point: that this is what a serious industrial policy for climate change looks like. More by Karl Mathiesen here.

COWS ON BOATS: Scan the shores of the Maas River that flows through Rotterdam and spot a triple-decker boat that stands out among the other vessels. The open-air stable on its top level can host up to 40 cows; the milk and manure they produce are processed on the bottom two levels, where there is also a vertical herb-growing farm. Read more by Giovanna Coi here.

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AGENDA       

Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels, starting at 11 a.m. Press conference by Josep Borrell expected.

Agriculture and Fisheries Council, continuing.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol and hold a joint press conference. She will also participate in a G7 leaders’ meeting via videoconference.

Von der Leyen then heads to Paris for dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron and Jonas Gahr Støre, the prime minister of Norway.

Commission Executive Vice President Margrethe Vestager is in Copenhagen, giving a keynote speech at the Association for Information Systems.

Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders opens the POLITICO Live event called “EU-U.S. data flows deal: game changer or more legal uncertainty?”

Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni gives a speech at a CEO Alliance event.

Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas participates in the European People’s Party Foreign Affairs Minister Meeting.

Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides receives Swedish Agriculture Minister Peter Kullgren.

BRUSSELS CORNER       

59 DETAINED AFTER MOROCCO MATCH: Police in the Belgian capital rounded up 59 revelers in the wake of Morocco’s victory over Portugal in the World Cup over the weekend.

CONGRATS to Teneo’s José Antonio Ruiz Vizcaíno and Siemens Healthineers’ Hannah Hoehn for getting hitched in Spain this Saturday.

BIRTHDAYS: MEPs Jordi Cañas and Anna Cavazzini; Former MEP Maria Heubuch; POLITICO’s Esther King and Guilherme Prochnow; European Parliament’s Andrew Hillman; Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa; Peadar O Lamhna from Ireland’s department of foreign affairs and trade; BBC’s Reeta Chakrabarti; Orgalim’s Malte Lohan.

THANKS to editor Emma Anderson and our producer Grace Stranger.

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