Argentina’s annual inflation exceeds expectations in March amid Middle East energy shock

Mucahithan Avcioglu

Argentina’s consumer inflation accelerated more than expected in March on a monthly basis, as higher fuel prices linked to the Iran war and annual tuition adjustments pushed up costs, official data showed Tuesday.

Consumer prices rose 3.4% in March from the previous month, above the 3% median estimate in a survey of economists. On an annual basis, inflation slowed slightly to 32.6% from 33.1% in February, according to the national statistics agency Indec.

Education recorded the steepest monthly increase at 12.1%, followed by transport at 4.1%, the data showed. Food and non-alcoholic beverages also remained a major driver of the index, rising 6.9% in the greater Buenos Aires area.

Fuel prices have climbed about 23% since the start of the Middle East conflict at the end of February, according to Bloomberg, citing data by Buenos Aires-based consultancy Eco Go, adding pressure to consumer prices.

Economy Minister Luis Caputo said earlier Tuesday that March inflation likely exceeded 3% and argued that price pressures were partly fueled by market turbulence ahead of last October’s midterm election.

Caputo said stronger demand for US dollars, driven by hedging against a potentially unfavorable election outcome for the government, had fed through to domestic prices.

He said inflation is expected to slow from April.

“Beginning in April, we will see an important deceleration in inflation,” Caputo said during a panel interview. “We will definitely see a disinflation process with greater growth.”

The data came amid the backdrop of a severe energy shock after the Iran war disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global crude and LNG trade.

Brent crude initially climbed toward $120 a barrel after the waterway’s closure before stabilizing around $95, while continued restrictions on shipping have kept supply concerns elevated even with a ceasefire.