Are Turkiye-Bahrain relations poised for a new chapter?

Are Turkiye-Bahrain relations poised for a new chapter?

The normalization between Turkiye and the Gulf Cooperation Council states that started in early 2021 has had a transformative impact on Ankara’s relations with the region. However, when Turkiye-GCC relations are discussed, Bahrain is the state that is least mentioned. Compared to Ankara’s relations with the other Gulf states, its ties with Bahrain did not significantly develop during this normalization phase, as the two states are yet to engage in solid political, economic and defense cooperation.

However, Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus visited Bahrain on Monday. After leaving Bahrain, Kurtulmus made an official visit to the UAE, where he inaugurated a branch of the Turkish defense giant Aselsan in Abu Dhabi. Unlike Bahrain, Ankara’s relations with the UAE are rapidly improving in both the economic and defense realms. For example, Abu Dhabi has inked a free trade deal with Ankara and purchased Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkish manufacturer Baykar.

Kurtulmus noted that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will also visit the UAE this month. This will be the fifth time the Turkish and Emirati leaders have met in less than a year. Whether Bahrain will join the UAE on Erdogan’s itinerary remains to be seen. Despite his announcement of a visit to Bahrain in November 2022 — which would have been his first visit since 2017 — the trip did not materialize.

Following last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, Turkiye’s policymakers drafted a new approach titled “The Century of Turkiye.” In doing so — and to reflect the importance of the Gulf states — Erdogan embarked on a July tour that encompassed Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. This tour was both symbolically and strategically significant, as several agreements were signed between Turkiye and the Gulf states, which sought to diversify their economies, counter security threats and enhance their roles in the region. Bahrain was not included.

The developing relations between Ankara and Manama were adversely impacted by the 2017 Gulf crisis and 2020 Abraham Accords

Sinem Cengiz

Therefore, Kurtulmus’ visits to Manama and Abu Dhabi were important in terms of timing and discussions. The visit to Bahrain could signify the beginning of a potential new chapter in Turkish-Bahraini relations and might lay the groundwork for a forthcoming high-level visit from the Turkish side.

Bahrain’s King Hamad was the first Arab leader to visit Ankara following the July 2016 failed coup attempt. During the respective visits of King Hamad to Ankara in 2016 and Erdogan to Manama in 2017, numerous agreements were signed on defense, diplomatic, educational and economic cooperation. However, the developing relations between Ankara and Manama were adversely impacted by the 2017 Gulf crisis and 2020 Abraham Accords.

Yet, diplomatic contacts between Ankara and Manama have continued. Former Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu paid an official two-day visit to Bahrain in January 2022. This was followed by the visit of Turkiye’s then-Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati in March 2022. Last year, Bahrain was among the GCC countries that sent rescue and aid teams to Turkiye and Syria after they were hit by devastating earthquakes. Bahraini people also carried out donation campaigns in solidarity with the Turks and Syrians. Moreover, Turkiye’s Ambassador in Manama Esin Cakil has been instrumental in fostering relations between the two countries, focusing on business and cultural cooperation.

In international diplomacy, when high-level issues, such as security and defense cooperation, are not at a promising level, states can instead move forward by focusing on low-level politics, including cultural and economic cooperation. Bahrain already hosts a branch of one of Turkiye’s most effective cultural institutions, the Yunus Emre Institute, which promotes learning of the Turkish language and cultural norms worldwide. The institute currently only has branches in Qatar and Bahrain within the Gulf region.

It has become critical for Bahrain to diversify its partnerships with regional powers, especially in terms of defense and trade

Sinem Cengiz

It has become critical for Bahrain to diversify its partnerships with regional powers, especially in terms of defense and trade. It has the smallest and most vulnerable economy among the GCC states due to its relatively few energy resources and limited market and savings. Therefore, the issue of diversification is crucial to the national economy. Although the trade volume between Turkiye and Bahrain does not compare to that of other Gulf countries, there is an opportunity for Ankara to reach new sources of energy, both hydrocarbons and renewables, through its ties with Bahrain, while Manama can attract Turkish investments.

Despite the relatively undeveloped level of economic ties, there are significant security aspects to the Turkish-Bahraini relationship. Over the past few years, Turkiye’s defense industry has increased its sales to Gulf countries, so this might be an area for Bahrain to deepen its cooperation with Turkiye. Although the US occupies a significant place in Bahrain’s security and economic cooperation, Turkiye is a significant regional actor that has acted as a counterforce in the Gulf for decades.

For Ankara, increasing its number of friends in the Gulf is crucial. It has been pursuing a particular policy toward each GCC member state according to its varying interests. Bahrain, like other GCC members, might seek to deepen its ties with Turkiye, particularly as it perceives significant threats to its stability and security, such as a rising hegemonic Iran, an increasing risk of terrorism and the potential for destabilizing fallout as a result of great power competition. The Iranian factor is a particularly important determinant in Bahraini foreign policy.

Given the new realities of regional politics in the post-normalization era, Turkiye’s relations with Manama have the potential and need to improve, even if they do not ultimately reach the level of Ankara’s ties with other GCC states.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz

 

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