Another reason for this uneasiness
The fact that these objections cannot be overcome shows that there are problems within the U.S. administration as well. Information reaching Ankara indicates that U.S. officials in Iraq also are advising Washington against the deployment of Turkish troops to Iraq.
Naturally, there are also those in the United States who think that in the wake of the latest U.N. decision, troops from certain other countries should go to Iraq together with Turkish troops, that such a step is required to cut down the number of U.S. troops serving in Iraq.
The opposition of certain groups in Iraq and the differences on this issue in the U.S. administration make the "Will Turkey be sending troops to Iraq?" issue all the more complicated. Furthermore, Turkey is now wondering whether or not it was a good idea to send troops to Iraq in order to mend fences with the United States.
Both the signals sent by the United States and the assessments being made in Turkey indicate that if Turkey sends troops to Iraq, this will affect the domestic balances in Turkey beyond the initial estimates.
The worries harbored by the government and the other decision-makers — who are obviously even pondering whether Turkish troop deployments to Iraq could trigger a civil war in Turkey — have been eased to a certain extent now that statements have been made in Iraq and in the U.S. along the following lines: "It would be better if Turkey did not send troops." For that reason it is now being said that by taking the decision to send troops Turkey has improved its relations with the United States, and now if these troops do not actually get sent to Iraq — due to factors outside Turkey — the Turkish public will breathe a sigh of relief.
These remarks are based on the following assesments:
"Turkey has already been in Iraq for years — from the standpoint of monitoring and keeping under check the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK-KADEK) — an issue on which Turkey has expressed its sensitivities. It is common knowledge that as long as PKK-KADEK remains on Mt. Kandil, Turkish units will not leave northern Iraq. Besides, it is a fact that PKK-KADEK is being directed not from Mt. Kandil but from Imrali Island. In other words, Turkey’s real problem is not PKK-KADEK but the spot the Kurds in northern Iraq have reached.
"Undoubtedly, one can halt or slow down this process by sending troops to Iraq. The crux of the problem is what kind of reaction the Kurds in Turkey would have to that — independent of PKK-KADEK.
We say "independent of PKK-KADEK" because the latest statement made by Ocalan was about a "new Israel having been founded on Turkey’s southeastern border." This indicates that the real "executive" of PKK-KADEK too has taken a stance against the developments in the region getting out of his control.
However, it is quite doubtful that the two million voters that make up the Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) grassroots see the developments in this light. Probably for the first time in quite a long time, a serious difference in view exists between the PKK and the "grassroots." The PKK leaders themselves admit that the grassroots who vote for DEHAP are happy about the developments in northern Iraq. That means that if Turkey were to send troops to Iraq, Turkish targets would be the object of attacks in Turkey and in Iraq. Furthermore, in such a case, the attacks in Turkey would result entirely from the decision of civilian movements and not from the decisions of a "controllable leadership."
The conclusion this kind of assessment leads to is obvious: Turkey would be faced with civil war conditions it cannot control and that would completely change the political structure in Turkey. What is at stake is not merely the "politics" losing blood. The state too would obviously come under great strain, proving unable to provide any reasonable excuse for troops returning in coffins.
This is why it is being whispered in Ankara that it would be better if the opposing voices coming from Iraq and the United States continued to be heard — so that Ankara can avoid sending troops to Iraq.
However, that is not the end of the problem. This is because there are also those who do not view the situation in this light. The assessments made by those who are saying, "If peace force troops are to be sent to Iraq, count us out," demanding that Turkish troops should be the sole force controlling the area where they would be deployed, will be given in the next article.
