Ad Hoc Report, Syrian-Turkish Normalization – Scenarios and Impacts on the Humanitarian Landscape (December 2022) – Syrian Arab Republic

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Mounting speculation over a potential normalization between Ankara and Damascus has required actors
to consider the consequences for humanitarian operations in Syria. This report outlines four plausible
scenarios for normalization pathways over the next eight months leading up to the 2023 Turkish election.
iMMAP assessed the implications of each scenario for humanitarian actors in Northeast and Northwest
Syria (NES and NWS) and the contingencies affecting their likelihood. A chain of plausibility approach is
used to build out these scenarios from a nexus of baseline indicators outlining the likely steps each party
takes towards achieving normalization, underpinned by informed assumptions about their incentives.
Scenario I is predicated on both sides viewing the optics of a prolonged normalization process as politically
beneficial regardless of outcomes. The result of this scenario is a continuation of the status quo, although
the possibility of unilateral action to meet security needs without direct cooperation or coordination
remains open. The likelihood of this scenario is extremely high in the near-term.
Scenario II assumes that a comprehensive normalization agreement will be reached between Ankara and
Damascus in the next eight months, involving significant change in areas of control and the creation of
safe zones. While Turkey will prioritize diplomatic channels and negotiations as a first option, it continues
to reserve the option of kinetic action. This scenario is extremely unlikely in the near-term.
Scenario III is predicated on both parties isolating their disagreements and choosing to cooperate on
discrete political, economic, and/or security issues of mutual concerns. This scenario is oriented towards
the security question since this aspect of a potential understanding carries the most significant impact
for humanitarian operations as a reciprocal recognition of security interests will result in territorial trades
and/or mutually agreed-upon joint efforts. The likelihood of this occurring in the near term is moderately
likely.
Scenario IV is predicated on one or both parties transgressing on each other’s redlines or reneging on
promises. This results in a breakdown of the normalization process. The likelihood of this scenario is
moderate in the near-term.
iMMAP finds that a scenario of prolonged normalization talks will be most likely over the period assessed
and will have limited impact on actors in terms of disruption to existing programs. A limited normalization
scenario also has a relatively high degree of likelihood and impact, whereby a mutual recognition of Ankara
and Damascus’ security concerns leads to an agreement of non-interference in the unilateral action of
each party. Although full or collapsed normalization scenarios would have more negative impacts on
humanitarian operations in NES and NWS, these are significantly less likely to occur. The most probable
of these scenarios are unlikely to present novel challenges to humanitarian operations, but rather result
in varying degrees of exaggeration of the current status quo. Even the most disruptive of these will likely
include similar modalities for cross-border aid in the near to medium term.