British economist and BlueBay Asset Management Emerging Markets Senior Strategist Timothy Ash expressed Sunday optimism about positive developments in the Turkish economy noting “2024 could be a truly exciting year for Türkiye.”
Ash, speaking at the TRT World Forum 2023 in Istanbul, in his interview with Anadolu Agency (AA) evaluated economic developments in Türkiye, highlighting the increased confidence from abroad with the change in economic management.
Ash mentioned that technology investments and the demographic structure are “promising” for Türkiye.
He stated that international investors are eager to return to Türkiye predicting that the lira would stabilize next year, and the deflation process would begin.
Describing Türkiye as a production base, Ash touted the policies of the new economic teams, stating: “With the new economic policy team and the comprehensive and convincing policies led by (Treasury and Finance Minister) Mehmet Şimşek and (Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye Governor Hafize) Gaye Erkan, we have seen comprehensive and convincing policies. We believe in this story. We still think it makes sense to invest here in terms of skills and production.”
Drawing attention to the magnitude of investments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and military technology, Ash also emphasized Türkiye’s rapid progress against its competitors with electric vehicle production and growth in tourism.
“Türkiye has a young and dynamic population. Turks want technology. Look at the reaction to unmanned aerial vehicle technology, look at Teknofest, how many young Turks are there. There is a very good banking sector and a very good manufacturing sector. Actually, it is in a good (strategic) position. Türkiye produces and exports some things,” he explained.
Furthermore, Ash expressed that the disinflation process would begin in Türkiye, and the lira would gain stability, saying, “We will see that inflation is decreasing. The lira will start to gain stability, and I think this will bring money back to Türkiye.”
Regarding the near future and expressing the international business world’s desire to invest in Türkiye again, Ash said, “2024 could be a truly exciting year for Türkiye. I read international bank reports on Türkiye. Billions of dollars have been earned from tourism, which is great for growth. It is good for employment. It is good for the current account, which feeds into macro financial stability.”
Other financial institutions including Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, told earlier Reuters it had started dipping its toe back into the Turkish lira. At the same time, central bank officials said funds are also beginning to arrive from large U.S.-based institutional investors.
Some large banks, including Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan, recommend that clients reconsider Turkish assets, with the former saying lira-denominated instruments may be one of the best trades among emerging markets in 2024.