Will Southern Cyprus Change Its Mind ?

We reached the following conclusions:

There is no chance AKEL will change its decision. Since Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos also opposes the plan, the outcome of the referendum is obvious. The Greek Cypriot people’s view is that the UN Cyprus plan is unfair to them. Most of them are nervous about approving it, as they believe it carries serious risks for the future. Those planning to vote ‘no’ are aware that this would exacerbate the division on the island and make the ‘green line’ a permanent border. But they find this less objectionable than what they fear the UN plan would bring.

Chances that the plan will be approved in the referendum are weak, so what should we expect? The answer of Nicosia diplomats is this: ‘The Greeks could hold one more referendum (there is a precedent for this in the EU). But since the Greek part will become an EU member on May 1, it wouldn’t make any more difference to the Turkish part than a delay of the referendum.

Some believe that that the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) would benefit if the Greek Cypriots reject the plan while the Turkish part accepts it. According to this view, the embargo on the TRNC would be lifted and some countries besides Turkey would even recognize it. The realization of this prospect depends on the formation of the required provisions. A ‘no’ vote from the Greek part would bring pressure from the EU and the US. Though there could be a more understanding attitude towards the Turkish part, we shouldn’t look for ‘important’ states (or the UN and EU) to recognize the TRNC and lift the embargo. Let’s say that the conditions turn in the TRNC’s favor. Could there be trade with the southern part of the island? No. What about with EU countries? It’s important at this point whether EU members or the US would recognize the TRNC. So a close look at the matter brings little optimism for an end to the embargo if the Greeks vote no.”