Why Israel Might Be Forced to End Its Nuclear Ambiguity Thanks to Turkey

On September 19, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that he would not only welcome his Turkish counterpart, President Erdoğan, to the White House on September 25, but also discuss several military deals, including the sale of upgraded F-16s and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.

Trump’s desire to sell Erdoğan such platforms makes neither financial nor strategic sense.

While Trump and the aircraft manufacturers might point to the multibillion-dollar contract, Turkey’s tendency to reverse engineer such technology to incorporate into its own military industry means Lockheed Martin essentially sells out its own future to jumpstart a competitor’s industry.

For Trump to help Turkey’s military is as strategically backward as, in hindsight, President Bill Clinton’s willingness to sell cutting-edge satellite technology to the People’s Republic of China.

Trump’s Big Turkey Mistake

Trump’s embrace of Erdoğan is even more strategically unsound given Erdoğan’s previous use of Turkey’s F-16s and his threats to the region.

Turkish F-16s and drones regularly bomb Kurdish villages in Syria and Iraq and violate Cypriot sovereignty on a nearly daily basis.

Turkish F-16s also reportedly attacked Armenian positions during Azerbaijan’s 2020 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.

For Trump to arm Turkey with advanced weaponry as Erdoğan repeatedly incites terrorism and threatens Israel, however, simply greenlights and encourages Erdoğan’s behavior; it is akin to selling Saddam Hussein weaponry after he used chemical weapons against the Kurds and began questioning Kuwait’s right to exist as an independent state.

With Erdoğan threatening Israel, hosting Hamas, and now arming itself with some of the world’s most sophisticated aircraft, and with Trump either blind to or seeking to profit from the situations, Israeli leaders should no longer embrace their decades-old policy of nuclear ambiguity.

What Should Israel Do Now

Throughout the Cold War, the United States guaranteed Israel a qualitative military edge to ensure that, despite its lack of strategic depth, it could withstand an Arab invasion.

Trump now ensures that Israel must face in Turkey a foe almost ten times as populous.

Erdoğan is as committed to Israel’s destruction as Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini once were.

Both Nasser and Khomeini sold their constituents the illusion that their hatred of Israel would come without cost.

In the interest of peace, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should make clear to the Turkish public that the cost of any direct or indirect attack on Israel could be huge.

A Major Change In Tone and Substance 

Not only should he make clear that Israel will never allow Turkey to develop nuclear weapons, but that Israel reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons against Turkish military targets and bases should Turkey use those bases to attack the Jewish state.

Turks—and Americans—would be wise to avoid areas around the Merzifon, Konya, and Incirlik Air Bases, among others.

America’s nuclear advantage shortened World War II, and nuclear deterrence prevented direct war between the United States and Soviet Union and their European satellites during the Cold War.

If Trump wants to pursue his weapons sales to Turkey, Israel will have no choice but declare its nuclear card and strike at Turkey unilaterally should it attempt either to develop a covert nuclear weapon or seize any U.S. nuclear weapons still stored on its territory.