Why is France scared of Turkey?

Chirac did not do that. He said and showed that his attitude remained the same.

The Turkish delegation are relaxed — for now.

I spoke with those who watched the matter very closely in Paris and asked them the question, "Why oh why does a large country like France fear the start of membership negotiations with Turkey?"

Firstly, let me emphasize one fact. The people on the street couldn’t care less. They don’t think about either the EU or Turkey. The groups we are talking about are the political parties, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), experts on Europe and the Middle East, the military — in short — those who make their voices heard to the country’s leadership.

Here are the sources of discomfort for France.

1. Turkey is frightening due to its size.

People are frightened of Turkey’s size, its geography and its population; a population that will pass the 80-million mark soon. It touches the Balkans and the Aegean Sea to the west, and Iraq and the Caucasus to the east. Moreover, a portion of its society is very rich, while another is very poor. In short, it will cost a lot of money, in addition, Turkey will have a lot of say in the EU due to its large population.

Moreover, when we add racists and those who get nervous whenever the word Islam is mentioned, the picture becomes much clearer.

2. Control over the EU will be lost.

France is not only scared of Turkey, but also the incredibly large EU that will be created when Turkey becomes a member. Control of a nine, or even a 15-member EU, will be entirely dissimilar to that of a 30-member EU. We should also add those who see Turkey as a satellite of the United States.

3. Domestic political factors

There are also important domestic political factors behind the doubts voiced over Turkey. Political groups, who want to harm Chirac, use his support of Turkey’s membership to hurt him. Anyyone who gets angry with Chirac tries to pressurize him on his perceived soft spot for Turkey.

4. Armenian factor

We should also add the Armenian factor to this list. We are talking about a rich, 450,000-strong group fully integrated into French society. They are collecting the fruits of successful lobbying undertaken over the past year — of which Turkey could only watch from the sidelines. Turkey left the field so open that the Armenians have made the French accept the supposed Armenian genocide claims; also, they want Turkey — who have EU aspirations — to pay a very high price. While we should not exaggerate their influence too much, they do, nevertheless, have an impact on politicians.

Can Chirac succeed, or is the task too hard?
Chirac faces a very hard task; but it is not impossible for him to succeed. If there is no last minute dispute, what Chiras says will happen. As we have seen many times in the past, the president and the ruling government may not always see eye-to-eye on certain issues, however, foreign policy decisions are up to the president and whatever his decision is, it will be final.

If Chirac alters his stance, there is nothing we can do. However, it would be very hard for him to do at this point in time. If Turkey does not make any last minute mistakes, like closing a political party or jailing certain people, nothing will change, because President Chirac, just like his predecessor, Francois Mitterand , continues to believe that Europe can only be empowered by Turkey.

If upon reading this you feel that it will be easy to convince France about Turkey, then you will be mistaken. International relations are very slippery. You may be surprised to see that those who say "yes’ today may come up and say "no" tomorrow.

We can relax today though.

But another day starts tomorrow — and new factors will have to be considered.