What will happen in Brussels?

He didn’t say what he would be doing there. It’s only known that he’s spoken every day with Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul, who’s currently in New York, mostly about the EU. Neither Ankara nor Brussels know what sort of stance Erdogan will take during his visit. He’s going there without showing his cards. This is both a bargaining tactic and his character. Some think that Brussels wants to beat Erdogan using the criminalization of adultery issue. Erdogan thinks that if he retreats on the issue, the EU might put forth other requirements for a positive progress report. Erdogan will bargain hard with EU Commissioner for Enlargement Guenter Verheugen, and of course Verheugen will return the favor. Erdogan’s personal psychology embraces ‘diplomatic games.’

If Erdogan can ensure a positive progress report without any requests other than solving the adultery deadlock in this diplomatic game, he will be making a serious maneuver and playing a good game. However, if he doesn’t know where to relent, he will be committing a great political error. Erdogan will try to make Brussels accept the following two provisos:

* What the Justice and Development Party (AKP) is seeking isn’t an old adultery arrangement, but a ‘conservative democratic’ arrangement.

* The government took the adultery issue off the table and now the EU shouldn’t stipulate new conditions or requests, and the progress report should be written ‘cleanly.’

I’m optimistic that both of these will be achieved.”