What if a Date is Not Set on Friday?

The most important of these is that a date to begin negotiations with Turkey will not be set at the Summit, but left up to the Commission instead. According to this scenario, EU leaders will consider the October 6th Commission report to be in line with the decision they made at the 2002 Copenhagen Summit and will decide to start negotiations with Turkey without delay, but will not include a date in the decision. This decision will be left to the Commission, which prepared the progress report. This scenario is expected to provide France with some relief. France asserts that a ‘no’ vote might affect the referendum outcome on the EU Constitution because of the ongoing Turkey discussions and is looking to postpone the start of negotiations with Turkey as long as possible.

This scenario is made more likely by the failure of the EU Foreign Ministers at the General Affairs Council to reach agreement regarding the paragraph on Turkey or addressing France’s anxiety. Experts in Brussels argue that even if this scenario becomes reality, Ankara should not be worried. Sources say that the October 6th Progress Report was prepared by the Commission and if the date is to be set by the Commission, negotiations will definitely start in 2005. In this scenario, there will be no need for a second Council decision.