What does the Trump rally attack mean for the US election?

Washington, DC – Eight gunshots have transformed the United States election, casting an already unprecedented race into further uncertainty.

On Sunday, a day after the attack at candidate Donald Trump’s Butler, Pennsylvania rally, details have continued to emerge, as have early indications of how the violent act would affect US political discourse, campaigning and voter attitudes in the days leading up to the November 8 poll.

But for Rina Shah, a US political strategist, one thing was clear in the immediate wake of the attack: “No matter what, everything changes from here on out.”

That will be particularly on display, she said, at the Republican National Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where Republicans will gather starting Monday to begin the official process of nominating Trump as their candidate.

The event will kick off just two days after the shooter, identified as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, opened fire from a nearby rooftop outside of the Secret Service security perimeter at Trump’s rally.

One bullet grazed Trump in the right ear, causing panic on the crowded stage. Others struck spectators, killing one man and injuring two more.

“I can say that this shocks the consciousness,” Shah said during a television interview with Al Jazeera. “We have less than 120 days to go and this resets everything.”

Calls for unity meet accusations and blame

Indeed, the rally attack – in which Trump became the 13th US president or presidential candidate to face an assassination attempt, and the eighth to survive – was swiftly met with calls from elected lawmakers for a reset in the polarisation that has come to define modern US politics.

US President Joe Biden decried the violence as “sick” before holding a phone call with his opponent late Saturday. He said “everybody must condemn” the attack.

On Sunday, Trump, in a break from the often caustic rhetoric that had previously defined his campaign, said “It is more important than ever that we stand united.”

Political violence experts have said it is imperative for leaders to continue to bring the temperature down to prevent further violence or retributive attacks.

Speaking to Al Jazeera in a television interview after the attack, Colin P Clarke, the director of research at the Soufan Group, a security consulting firm, said that the rally violence “epitomises” the current extremes of US democracy.

Recent studies have shown that while Americans are less ideologically polarised than they perceive themselves to be, they are increasingly “emotionally polarised”, meaning they “harbor strong dislike for members of the other party”, according to an analysis published last year by Rachel Kleinfeld, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Several studies have shown an increase in threats against elected officials and public office holders in recent years, surging after Trump supporters stormed the US capitol in an effort to overturn Biden’s election victory on January 6, 2021.

Meanwhile, a June survey conducted out of the University of Chicago found that nearly 7 percent of respondents said the use of force was justified to restore Trump to the presidency. Another 10 percent said force would be justified to “prevent Trump from becoming president”.

Security analyst Clarke added that while the violence at the Trump rally could be a unifying moment for Americans, “it’s likely to be divisive”. He predicted a “very dangerous political season”.

His words have since proven prescient, with a raft of Republicans, including Trump’s possible vice president pick Senator JD Vance, laying blame for the attack on Biden. Vance said Biden’s rhetoric has portrayed Trump as “an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs”.

At least one Republican legislator has dipped into conspiracy theory, with US Representative Mike Collins of Georgia baselessly calling on authorities to arrest Biden for “inciting an assassination”.

Political bump

As politics watchers wait to see if the shooting will indeed inflame or soothe US political polarisation, almost every analyst who spoke to Al Jazeera agreed that Trump is likely to receive a bump in support in the wake of the attack.

That will be buoyed by the timing of the incident, just before the RNC, with Trump’s team saying he will still attend.

It will also be boosted by the images and the narrative that have emerged from the attack.

“The iconic shot of Trump standing with his fist in the air, blood coming down the side of his head, and the flag draped just perfectly over him is really driving the narrative,” James Davis, a Republican strategist, told Al Jazeera.

“He’s going to be seen sympathetically after this from the national narrative,” he said.

He’ll never stop fighting to Save America 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/qT4Vd0sVTm

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 13, 2024

Even a slight boost in support could make the difference in a race set to be decided by razor-thin margins. Trump and Biden have both been hoping to win over a small group of undecided voters in a few key battleground states, while turning out voters who do not normally go to the polls.

Trump has largely weathered his historic May conviction on charges related to hush-money payments made to an adult film star, although some polls had shown some softening among undecided voters. Biden, meanwhile, has faced growing calls from within his own party to step aside as concerns over his age have crescendoed.

Still, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll released last week showed Biden leading Trump slightly in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump with a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Spectre of more violence

Speaking to Al Jazeera, Arshad Hasan, a Democratic strategist, also acknowledged that Trump is likely to gain in the wake of the attack, particularly with the Biden campaign vowing to pause communications and ads critical of Trump for 48 hours out of respect.

While Hasan said it is wise for Democrats to focus on “humanity” in the wake of the attack, they should also continue to make calls for greater gun control, which Biden had already made central to his presidency. “The time to talk about gun violence is whenever there is gun violence,” he said.

The political strategist said he was attending a conference of the party’s progressive wing when the attack occurred. He saw shock waves go through the crowd of attendees, many of whom would be spending the next months of the election on various campaign trails and at events similar to Trump’s rally.

Beyond the Trump attack, still fresh in many people’s minds are the 2011 shooting of Representative Gabby Giffords at a constituent event and the 2017 attack on members of Congress playing baseball in Alexandria, Virginia, he added.

The campaign season, Hasan said, will likely be defined by that spectre of fear.

“There are hundreds of people who are running for Congress, for Senate, thousands of people running for state legislature. And on top of that, there’s all of the issues that people are advocating for,” he said.

While the attack has sparked a reassessment of campaign security for high-profile candidates, most people running for election do so with little to no security.

“There is this fear that violence begets more violence,” Hasan said.