What could a new Trump presidency mean for Netanyahu?

In 2021, former United States President Donald Trump told Israeli journalist Barak Ravid that his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu had suffered after the Israeli prime minister had congratulated Joe Biden on winning the 2020 American presidential election.

“F*** him,” Trump said in the interview.

“I liked Bibi,” Trump said at the time. “I still like Bibi … But I also like loyalty.”

“Trump saw this as a betrayal,” Eyal Lurie-Pardes of the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera. “Trump has been very supportive of Israel but critical of Netanyahu, attacking him for [October 7] happening under his watch and as being weaker than ever.

“Trump doesn’t like to pick a losing partner,” he added.

Now, as the prospects of Republican presidential nominee Trump – who led over Biden in national polls before he dropped out of the US election this weekend – returning to the White House after November’s election increases, Netanyahu has been working hard to return to Trump’s good graces, according to analysts. The two enjoyed a close relationship during Trump’s tenure as American president, and the Israeli leader has been making overtures to rekindle their personal relationship.

“Netanyahu, going back to the 1980s, has been building an alliance with the Republican Party, with the right, and with Christian Evangelicals,” Zachary Lockman, professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at New York University, told Al Jazeera. “This is who he sees as his most durable allies because the Democratic Party, he understands correctly, includes elements increasingly critical of Israel, and Biden is a relic of the past.”

The Israeli prime minister would often heap praise on Trump, describing him in 2020 as “the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House”.

Trump often reciprocated the compliments. In 2020, the then-US president presented Netanyahu with a ceremonial gold key to the White House.

“It’s a key to our country and to our hearts. And you’ve been an amazing leader for a long period of time,” Trump told Netanyahu.

Resuming Netanyahu’s agenda

Netanyahu is visiting Washington, DC this week to address the US Congress on July 24. There is no indication yet he will meet Trump, who survived an assassination attempt on July 13. But Netanyahu’s camp has been trying to thaw relations with Trump for some time. Axios reported that a Netanyahu ally even travelled to Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s Florida residence, to read passages of Netanyahu’s book praising the former president.

The Israeli premier also posted a video on social media addressing the recent attempt on Trump’s life.

“Like all Israelis, my wife Sara and I were shocked by the horrific assassination attempt on the life of President Donald Trump,” Netanyahu said in the video address. Trump then posted the video on his social media website Truth Social.

Even without Trump in office, Israel has received steadfast support from the US. Biden’s administration has consistently backed Israel with billions of dollars in military aid since October 7, even as the Palestinian death toll stands at 39,090.

News outlets report that Biden has complained about Netanyahu in private but the US has never wavered in its material support for Israel.

Still, some on the Israeli right are not satisfied with the current level of US support and hope that a Trump presidency will remove any constraints.

When Trump was “president he supported … fulfilling Netanyahu’s agenda”, Lockman said. “He would hope for resumption of that agenda and an end to American pressure on Israel, even if it’s been minimal and not turned into anything concrete. Nonetheless, victory for Trump means to Netanyahu that it restores Israel’s ability to do whatever it wants.”

In his term as president, Trump recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moved the US embassy there from Tel Aviv, he appointed an ambassador who was ideologically aligned with Israel’s settler movement, and he hosted the signing of the Abraham Accords, which led to normalisation of relations between Israel and four Arab states – Bahrain, the UAE, Morocco and Sudan.

Trump will let them ‘finish the job’

Biden’s administration has come under heavy criticism in recent months for his policies concerning Gaza. Mass student protests broke out across campuses at US and international universities. More than 40 percent of Democrats are critical of Biden’s handling of the Gaza issue, according to surveys, and numerous government workers, including a top State Department figure, have resigned over Biden’s policy towards the besieged Palestinian enclave. These critics have said Biden is complicit in what the International Court of Justice (ICJ) says could amount to plausible genocide.

But inside Israel’s most right-wing government ever, there are criticisms of Biden for entirely different reasons. And the criticism goes beyond Netanyahu to other right-wing figures, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who reportedly said a captive deal should be avoided because it might help Biden against Trump.

“There is a difference between how those inside and outside the Israeli government perceive American support,” Lurie-Pardes said. “In the eyes of the Israeli right, the [Biden administration] has always been reluctant to send all that ammunition asked for, especially offensive weapons, and one shipment that is being withheld is part of a new cycle here.”

The Biden administration paused one shipment of weapons to Israel in early May over concerns they would be used in the offensive in Rafah. About half of that shipment was later sent in July, though half of it is still being withheld over concerns that it will be used on civilians. Furthermore, Lurie-Pardes said, Biden’s rhetoric had shifted towards pushing Israel into ceasefire negotiations.

“The right wing has perceived this as not giving Israel the support they need to finish the job [in Gaza],” he said.

Sarah Leah Whitson, director of Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN), said Biden has been trying to balance his commitment to Israel “by throwing little bones” to critics of the US ally, such as sanctions on violent settlers.

“I think that would go away if Trump is elected, and the Trump administration would more wholeheartedly, more openly position itself as supporting Israel,” Whitson told Al Jazeera.

However, she added that Trump would take a “firmer hand” in punishing Israel if it defies US demands – unlike Biden who has failed to enforce his warnings for the Israeli government against invading Rafah and blocking aid to Gaza.

Lifting sanctions

Should Trump come to power next year, there are a few policies analysts expect him to enact or reverse. While the Biden administration has been criticised for failing to hold Israel accountable for their violations of international laws and large civilian death toll, they have applied sanctions to a few settlers and settler organisations in the occupied West Bank.

Violence in the West Bank has spiralled out of control since October 7. Since then, Israeli forces and settlers have killed 513 people in the West Bank, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Furthermore, on July 4, Israel approved the largest land grab in the West Bank in 30 years, according to Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog.

Critics have said Biden’s sanctions on settlers and settlements are insufficient. Biden, who announced on Sunday that he would not be seeking re-election, is expected to be replaced on the Democratic ticket by his Vice President Kamala Harris – who experts believe will largely continue Biden’s policies towards Gaza.

A Trump presidency, however, would likely remove sanctions against settlers altogether.

“There is a very high likelihood that if Trump returned to office sanctions would be lifted even if they have been described by many as too little too late because settlers are more violent than ever,” Lurie-Pardes said.

While the Biden administration has spoken out against Israel maintaining a presence in Gaza, Lurie-Pardes added that Trump’s return to the White House could “lay the foundation for future resettling in Gaza and might be how Netanyahu can calm down some of the statements made by [far-right ministers in his government] Ben-Gvir and Smotrich”.

“Things can definitely get worse,” Lockman said. Netanyahu and his “ideological allies on the right” could see a second Trump presidency as “a moment to fulfil their agenda”, going after all their ideological enemies, “which may also include a war with Lebanon”, he added.

With additional reporting by Ali Harb.