We should not be deceived by the appearance of Berlin.

Wisely, Erdogan launched his EU campaign from Berlin. As in the case of all official visits, that was a successful visit. Nice words were uttered. Glittering promises were made.

However, one should not be deceived by the appearance. There is still a long way to go.

Chancellor Schroeder is faced with a dilemma. On one hand there is the German public that is wary of Turkish membership. German people look at the 2.5 million strong Turkish community in Germany and say,

"We are so very different from these people. We cannot mix with them. Besides, with Turkish full membership the German labor market would be flooded with millions more of Turkish workers, grabbing our jobs and disrupting our peace."

Germany’s Christian Democratic Party expresses their reaction, putting pressure on the Social Democrats, accusing them of having failed to calculate well Germany’s long-term interests.

This pressure is important because the margin between these two parties is very small in the race for power. Turkish full membership in the EU could "burn" the Social Democrats, that is, cost them dearly.

This is why Schroeder calls out to the opposition, saying that the promises made to Turkey must be kept and that the opposition should not conduct politics on an "opposition to Turkish full membership" basis. However, the conservatives are not responding to this call.

On the other hand, Schroeder has a problem in that he does not want Germany to be the country that closes the door to an "influential" country such as Turkey.

He is aware of the fact that if Turkey receives a "No" or if the EU decision concerning Turkey gets postponed yet another time this will cause a quake.

Berlin is hesitating, thinking about the potential effects of such a move on Turkey-Germany and Turkey-EU relations and, also, about the deep instability such a move would trigger regarding Turkey’s "internal dynamics".

What happens from now on?
The Erdogan-Schroeder meeting took place in such a climate. Judging by the official talks and the subsequent statements, Schroeder gave extremely positive messages.

Noting that for 40 years Turkish bid for EU membership has been supported by all German governments, including the one led by Kohl, a conservative, he pointed out that it is high time that the promises made to Turkey must be kept.

He stressed that Turkey would take its place in the EU if it fulfilled the Copenhagen criteria. He praised the reforms made in Turkey to date.

To what extent are these words to be believed?
The Turkish delegation is extremely happy with their talks in Berlin.

However, during my conversations with those circles that take the pulse of the German government very well, I saw that these words to not amount to a "guarantee".

One official said, "Schroeder is in favor of giving Turkey a date but he thinks that conditions have not been met yet. He needs time. He is seeking ways of pacifying the public and the opposition. He expects support from Ankara.

Over the next few days the the practices in Turkey and the Cypriot developments would be likely to bolster Schroeder’s hand.

Germany is waiting for the conditions to improve further before taking a decision. The German government is inclined towards not keeping Turkey out but it is greatly upset by the way the conservative party has turned the Turkey issue into a domestic politics material.

The next 16 months will be critical.

Turkey will be travelling on a path so narrow that not even the slighest mistake or a step that could be misunderstood, can be afforded.

Erdogan’s trip to Berlin passed well. However, this is only a beginning, the first step in a campaign aimed at persuading the EU.

Albeit gradually, the situation is evolving in Turkey’s favor. What remains is the detailed implementation of the reforms that have been made.

The December 2004 rendezvous will be the most important rendezvous in the history of the Turkish Republic.