Warnings on the outcomes of local elections

1) People are fed up with never ending elections in the country.

2) The results are already more or less estimated!

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It is believed that the ruling AK Party will also win the local elections by a very wide margin.

The margin may even reach 3:1 with the second winning party in the elections!

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It is believed that people will vote for the ruling party because:

1) After 11 years of coalition people are happy with the stability brought to the country with the single party rule.

2) The government is considered to be successful in combating the economic problems of the country especially the 30-years-old inflation problem and is considered to be struggling sincerely to receive membership to the EU, that at least 70 percent of people favor.

3) On the other hand, the opposition CHP is considered to be a complete failure.

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Thus it is expected that AK Party will drastically increase her votes, maybe to a record level of 55-60 percent.

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In a country where a party brings stability and where the elections will be held in accordance with democratic rules; it is only natural and seems there is nothing to worry about the ruling party winning the elections.

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But still have some worries!

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1) AK Party comes from an Islamic background and that is why she is looked upon with suspicion by intellectuals, military and even civilian bureaucracy.

Although nobody can name concrete policies that show the party is still a fundamentalist party, the worries are still there, even if at a decreasing level.

The chairman has twice announced formally that he and his friends have broken of with the so called "nationalist view" i.e. the Islamic background and that is why people outside of the fundamentalist approach are also voting for the party.

But when one studies the candidates of the local elections the share of people from the "nationalist view" is overwhelming, at least the 70 percent of the candidates are from this fundamentalist group.

Thus given that around 60-70 percent of those who will vote for AK Party is not from the "nationalist view" and some are even anti-fundamentalist, they will be voting for a view they repel.

When people will realize that they have voted for people they do not actually approve of they will feel cheated and we will one again face political friction.

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2) One of the fundamental rules, in fact an insurance of democracies is "the check and balance system."

In democratic regimes, the ruling party that has won the elections should be constantly checked and balanced so that while the majority rules, she cannot overcome or deny the rights of the minority.

The rule of majority should not be able to turn into a system of "the tyranny of the majority."

The opposition is the guarantor of "the check and balances."

But it seems now that we will completely lose the opposition.

There will be a very strong one-party rule!

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Although the end result of the elections should be fully respected, I feel I should point out that it is very possible that democracies may hurt themselves and we may witness an example after March 28 in Turkey.

In 1958-60, 1964-67, 1983-87 we witnessed "the tyranny of the majority" and I am scared that we may witness another example.