US on track for consumer slowdown, interest rates to come down slowly: Fitch

ISTANBUL

The US economy is on track to see a cyclical consumer slowdown that avoids a recession and enables interest rates to come down slowly, according to a report by Fitch Ratings.

“(American) consumers seem reasonably well positioned benefitting from a financial surplus, only gradually rising interest burdens and a still low unemployment rate,” said the report released Monday.

“This suggests that a sudden demand collapse is not likely.”

However, “risks remain at this stage of an economic cycle where demand is slowing at a time when borrowing costs remain high,” according to the rating agency.

“Investors and consumers have largely shrugged off the changes in market rate cut expectations this year. But core and services inflation remain above central bank targets and supply side tail risks to inflation, be it from geopolitics or other events, could yet slow or halt the disinflationary trend and slow the projected pace of monetary easing,” it said.

Fitch stressed that politics remains an area of high uncertainty, adding the US presidential election in November will be particularly relevant for global credit as it could mark a pivot point for policy in several important areas.

While Vice President Kamala Harris is set to become the Democratic nominee, she is not expected to deviate significantly from President Joe Biden’s agenda, according to the agency.

If Donald Trump wins the presidency and Republicans gain ground in Congress, Fitch believes that certain policy areas will become notable to watch, including trade protectionism, restrictive immigration, persistent fiscal pressures, geopolitical positioning and foreign policy, a rollback in climate policy, financial deregulation and privatization, social policy reform, health care, housing and education.

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