US gets farther, EU gets closer

One heard more and more frequently the following argument from them: "There is no need for that. Rather than being pushed and pulled by the EU let us move closer to the U.S. and expand the scope of our strategic cooperation."

Meanwhile, the civilian-military circles that shape Turkey’s policies too were thinking of striking a certain balance with the U.S.

If the Turkish full membership in the EU did not materialize, Turkey was to focus more strongly on the U.S. in its relations with the West.

However, the U.S. intervention in Iraq changed everything.

First the rejection of the U.S. troop deployment in Turkey motion then the harsh criticism that triggered and, finally, the current situation in Iraq have all shown that from now on nothing can be the same in Turkey-U.S. relations.

The "strategic cooperation" has lost its content. It had been given that content with great difficulty anyway. Now no one even talks about being strategic partners. Washington does not trust Turkey unconditionally anymore.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s distrust of the U.S. is growing with each passing day. Due to the Kurdish problem a certain suspicion had been harbored towards the Americans anyway, a suspicion which had not been articulated much. The latest developments have fuelled these doubts and worries.

To sum up, the U.S. umbrella over Turkey has been punctured gradually. This mutual distrust has created the kind of climate in which Turkey is not able to have its back covered by the U.S.

Furthermore, the U.S. too has changed by now. It is no longer a super power. It has become a hyperpower dominating the entire world.

The Bush Administration has adopted towards Turkey — as well as other countries — a condescending attitude. It has adopted the, "We do not need you," kind of approach, giving the message, "You cannot do anything without obtaining permission from me." It would be useful to know that this approach would hardly change over the next five years — to say the least.

The U.S. will still consider Turkey a close ally but bilateral relations will not have the same warmth.

There will be a certain distance between us.

Also, Turkey knows that it will not be able to meet this hyperpower’s demands in the region. It would be out of the question for Turkey to take part in an operation Washington may stage against Iran or Syria.

The two countries are viewing the region in increasingly different ways.

That leaves the EU
In such a climate Turkey has to secure its relations with the western world by giving priority to the EU "pillar" so that what has been lost around the "U.S. pillar" will be balanced out by securing Turkish full membership in the EU.

Turkey is only just realizing that if it becomes a full member of the EU it can diminish — even turn into an advantage — the losses it has suffered.

Full membership in the EU has become more important than ever. The path to Turkey bolstering its position in the international arena politically and economically, is via full membership in the EU.

EU membership is the only way of getting rid of the U.S. pressure and to prevent the separatist activities.

In short, balances are being shaped anew.