UNPRECEDENTED

Do you think that CHP was defeated in Sunday’s elections? According to Baykal, it wouldn’t be right to compare Sunday’s results with the general elections of November 2002, because the two elections had ‘different dynamics.’ Therefore, the fall in the CHP’s votes to 18 percent, one percent less then they got in the general elections, is unimportant. It’s even a success. Why could it be a success? Because local elections should be compared to the previous local elections. Baykal says that the proper approach is to compare Sunday’s elections with the local elections of 1999. Thus we see an increase in CHP votes from just 11 percent in 1999.

In the previous local elections the CHP was there, but the now-ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) didn’t yet exist. Bearing this in mind, we can say that the AKP gained 42 percent of votes, or if we consider the 16 percent of votes won by the Virtue Party (FP) (a predecessor of the AKP), we could say that the AKP boosted its votes by 26 percent.

Predictions that the ruling party’s votes would rise and the opposition’s would fall didn’t bear out completely. The CHP’s votes decreased, but other opposition parties like the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and True Path Party (DYP) votes saw 10 percent jumps in their votes.

Baykal’s view that ‘the dynamics of local elections and general elections are different, so comparisons should be done with the previous local elections’ could have a scientific value, but eight of 20 political parties which took part in the previous elections weren’t there for Sunday’s elections. That means 40 percent of the actors in the elections have changed. Now how can a comparison with the November 2002 elections not be scientific, whereas a comparison of elections in which 40 percent of the actors have changed is?”