Ukraine ceasefire would relieve Turkiye of unwanted role

December 11, 2022 admin-dominor

Ukraine ceasefire would relieve Turkiye of unwanted role

The Turkish media was invaded last week by two bits of unpleasant news. One was the reports that the international community was moving toward building a new iron curtain between Europe and Russia. The other was the pending threat of a ground operation that Turkiye might carry out in Syria.
The previous iron curtain was established in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War and Turkiye had to act as one of its guardians for more than 40 years. This time, the curtain will move thousands of kilometers to the east, but Turkiye’s role as one of the guardians will be subject to only minor modifications.
The first iron curtain used to run through the Black Sea and along Turkiye’s borders with Georgia and Armenia. Now, it will not be along Turkiye’s land borders, but it will run through the Black Sea.
Presuming that Russia will not try to further expand its borders at Ukraine’s expense, the new iron curtain will go through the western borders of Russia and Belarus.
The idea of a new iron curtain is unpleasant news for Ankara, because Turkiye will again be given the task of being one of its guardians. This previously haunted the minds of many Turks for decades.
In the past, it divided the Black Sea east to west, leaving the southern part of the sea to Turkiye and the northern part to the Warsaw Pact countries. If such a curtain were to be reintroduced, the dividing line in the Black Sea would follow the demarcation lines of the littoral states’ maritime jurisdiction areas — Turkiye, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria on the one side and Russia on the other.
Because of the mediation role that Turkiye has played between Russia and Ukraine, it will again be put in a special situation. Ankara has obtained the status of a mediator by brokering meetings between Moscow and Kyiv. This status has also been recognized as a special situation by NATO because of the facilitator’s role that Ankara successfully played in the early stages of the crisis. Another important role that Turkiye played was its contribution to this summer’s crucial grain deal.
How long Turkiye can keep this status is difficult to tell, because the international community, and especially NATO, will sooner or later ask Ankara to put an end to the role that it plays in the gray area, by not applying sanctions on Russia.
The second unpleasant situation that Turkiye is faced with is the ground operation that has been pending for several months. This operation has occupied headlines in the Turkish media for too long. Two important players in the Syrian theater, Russia and the US, have done everything to convey to Turkiye a clear message to give up its plans. It is still unclear whether Turkiye will go ahead.
Ankara has other problems with the US. It has been excluded from the most advanced fighter aircraft consortium, the F-35. As the law is on Turkiye’s side, the US will probably drag its feet as long as it can. There has been promising news about another deal, which is the purchase from the US of 40 F-16 fighters and 80 modernization kits for its existing warplanes. The obstacles in Congress seem to have been cleared.
The trans-Atlantic community is intent on continuing to impose crippling sanctions on Russia. There are threats that even more biting sanctions are in the pipeline. Ankara cannot indefinitely remain a NATO ally that does not join in with the sanctions on Moscow.
French President Emmanuel Macron last week came up with a different idea. He said: “The West should consider how to address Russia’s security concerns if President Vladimir Putin agrees to end the war through diplomacy.” This proposal may eliminate the need to erect a new iron curtain. There was a period when Russia and NATO cooperated. There was a Russian delegation within the “fortress NATO,” but mutual trust eroded as time went by.

Ankara cannot indefinitely remain a NATO ally that does not join in with the sanctions on Moscow.

Yasar Yakis

We have to admit that the powerful US defense industry lobby must be working hard to create new jobs in the US at the expense of innocent soldiers who perish for a cause that is not their own.
The Ukrainian war was declared by Russia for an unconvincing reason. With a sustained effort by major countries, there is the chance to bring an end to the present lingering fight. Rather than signing a ceasefire agreement after many more people on both sides are killed, the leaders should assume their responsibility and agree to end the hostilities before any more people are killed.
Such a proposal would also relieve Turkiye from again becoming the watchdog of an iron curtain.