U.S.-Turkish ties uncertain after vote

"Trust between the United States and Turkey is in breakdown," said Huseyin Bagci, professor of International Relations at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University. "The decision is good for Turkey’s democracy, but bad for the U.S.-Turkish strategic relationship."
Eyup Fatsa, deputy head of the governing party’s parliamentary group, said a quick revote wouldn’t be taken after Turkey’s parliament failed Saturday to approve a government-backed motion to allow 62,000 U.S. combat troops in the country for a possible war against neighboring Iraq. The move was rejected despite the party’s overwhelming majority in parliament.
The decision stunned Washington and seriously jeopardizes U.S. planning for a northern front against Iraq, a crucial part of the American war strategy.
The ruling Justice and Development Party also had placed its prestige on the line, with leaders pressing legislators to vote for the motion. However, almost 100 of the party’s 362 legislators defected.
"The proposal has been delayed to an open-ended time," Fatsa told reporters at a Justice party meeting Sunday on whether to resubmit the motion to parliament, which next convenes on Tuesday. "There is no proposal for the foreseeable future."
It is not clear why the government was delaying a new vote. Some legislators may fear that pushing a vote could split the party between hardline factions that oppose the war and the more pragmatic legislators who believe that not supporting Washington could have devastating consequences for Turkey’s economy. The Justice party, which is rooted in Turkey’s Islamic movement, unites factions that are more traditional and religious with a more pragmatic group. The impact on Turkey’s economy could be swift. "There could be a minicrisis Monday (this) morning when markets reopen," said Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey project at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. Washington had been offering Turkey $15 billion in loans and grants to help cushion the Turkish economy if a war occurs. The critical economic pad could be lost now, although neither side has discussed the future publicly. Ships carrying equipment and some of the 62,000 U.S. troops who would be based in Turkey already are off the Turkish coast, a sign of how sure Washington was of Turkish support. For the United States, parliament’s failure to allow deployment of the troops leaves in question the U.S. war strategy, which called for a northern front against Iraq to divide Saddam Hussein’s forces.
For Turkey, in addition to the possible loss of U.S. funds, Ankara could lose a say in the future of neighboring Iraq in the event of war. That is a critical issue for the Turks, who fear a war could lead Kurds in northern Iraq to declare an independent state and in turn inspire Turkey’s own Kurdish minority.