Türkiye’s roof solar potential could offset 45% of electricity demand

Rooftop solar potential in Türkiye can be increased by 120 gigawatts (GW), which would be equivalent to meeting 45% of the nation’s total electricity consumption in 2022, according to a report released on Monday by the London-based energy think tank Ember.

Ember’s analysis used high-resolution satellite images to assess the capacity and the type of solar panels that can be installed on rooftops outside the 11 provinces of Türkiye declared disaster areas following the Feb. 6 earthquake in the country.

The report assessed the generation potential of optimal-angle roof types for each roof in 70 provinces and found an annual rooftop solar power generation potential of 148 terawatt-hours (TWh).

According to the report, the subsidy amount for households, the consumer type with the lowest electricity tariffs in the country, reached approximately $3.6 billion (TL 104.5 billion) in the 12 months from September 2022 to August 2023.

Ember contends that policies encouraging the widespread use of rooftop solar power plants could help lower the actual cost of electricity in the country. Such policies would be effective by reducing reliance on imported fossil fuel resources. Additionally, rooftop solar would be more economical and efficient, as it generates power at the point of consumption and does not require land.

Potential by cities

In the total rooftop solar energy potential capacity of 120 gigawatts calculated within the scope of the study, Istanbul ranked first with 10.4 gigawatts, followed by Ankara with 10.1 gigawatts and Izmir with 9.3 gigawatts.

“Although it ranks first in capacity potential, Istanbul, with its production potential of 11.4 TWh, lags behind Ankara at 12.5 TWh and Izmir with 12.4 TWh, both of which have higher solar potential,” the report said.

“Konya, at 8.6 TWh, follows the three largest cities. Manisa with 6.4 TWh, Bursa with 5.4 TWh, Afyon with 5.3 TWh and Balıkesir with 4.7 TWh follow, in line with their capacity potential rankings.

The other two provinces in the top 10 for electricity production are Antalya with 5.5 TWh and Muğla with 4.5 TWh, both of which are ranked higher compared to their capacity potential ranking because of their high solar potential, it said.

Cities like Konya, Ankara and Izmir have significant rooftop solar generation potential relative to their billed electricity consumption, the report noted.

Last year, 239 gigawatts of new solar capacity was added worldwide, nearly half of which, at 118 gigawatts, was installed on rooftops, the report said.

The newly installed rooftop solar power plants in 2022 increased by 49% compared to the earlier year and Australia became the top country for solar capacity per capita as of 2022. In Australia, one in every three homes has rooftop solar, according to the report.

Quoting Ufuk Alparslan, a regional lead at Ember, the report said: “Rooftops are prioritized in energy transition policies across the world and for a good reason.”

With Türkiye’s ambitious solar targets and a rooftop potential of almost 10 times its installed solar capacity, Alparslan maintained that in addition to the current rooftop potential, tens of thousands of new buildings are being constructed every year in Türkiye with the rebuilding effort in the earthquake zone raising this figure even higher.

“Introducing rooftop solar obligations for new buildings and public buildings, and the tendering of suitable apartment building roof areas by municipalities can both help Türkiye achieve its energy targets and enable people to generate their own electricity cheaply,” he added.

Türkiye’s solar energy targets

The report said that the share of solar power in electricity generation in Türkiye increased to 4.7% in 2022, adding that from January to June this year, the share of solar power generation in the country increased to 5.7% compared to the same period last year.

As of the end of November 2023, Türkiye’s solar capacity had increased to 11.2 gigawatts.

In line with the Turkish National Energy Plan announced in 2022, Türkiye plans to increase its installed solar power capacity to 52.9 gigawatts by 2035.

Türkiye’s solar energy installed capacity is expected to reach 30 gigawatts by the end of 2028, according to the country’s 12th Development Plan, published in October 2023. To reach this capacity, the country needs to build 3.4 gigawatts of solar installed capacity every year between 2024 and 2028.