Turkiye lifts clean electricity output to new highs in 1H24

EUROPE’S top coal-fired electricity producer cleaned up its power generation act during the first half of 2024, lifting clean electricity generation by more than 25% from the first half of 2024 and cutting fossil fuel-fired output by 9%.

Clean power also registered its highest ever share of Turkiye’s generation mix during the January to June period, supplying 53% of all electricity compared to 44% for the same months in 2023, data from energy think tank Ember shows.

Turkiye’s overall electricity output also climbed, rising by nearly 7% from a year ago to its highest in at least six years, ensuring that total electricity supplies for households and businesses has expanded despite cuts to fossil fuel use.

That expansion in total generation contrasts with generation trends across Europe as a whole, where total electricity output remains below prior peaks in several countries due to subdued demand from industry and greater regional energy efficiency.

Under pressure

Higher overall Turkyish electricity generation should start to put pressure on Turkyish electricity prices, which remain sharply above long-term average levels since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 roiled regional power markets.

Power producers have been under pressure in Turkiye to boost total output and cut electricity prices to support economic activity.

Turkiye’s manufacturing sector has struggled with weak orders due to soft regional demand for the goods that Turkiye produces and high manufacturing costs due to the country’s elevated energy prices.

To boost output, power firms have relied on coal to provide a majority of the country’s electricity, and so far in 2024 have generated more electricity from coal than Germany and Poland, Europe’s next largest coal-fired power producers.

But through the first half of 2024 Turkiye’s power firms have actually been able to cut coal’s share of the national generation mix to make way for more clean power output.

Hydro help

Hydro dams have been the main source of Turkiye’s clean power this year, with output rising by 37% from the same period in 2023 to the highest since 2020.

Increased hydro dam capacity along with heavy rains this spring have fuelled the growth in hydro generation this year.

Output from wind and solar farms have also registered double-digit growth during the first half of 2024. Wind generation was a record 17.58 terawatt hours (TWh) during January through June, while solar output was an all-time high 11.75 TWh, Ember data shows.

Coal-fired generation has remained largely flat so far in 2024, at 53.6 TWh.

However, gas-fired output has contracted by 26% to the lowest in four years.

In turn, that decline in total fossil fuel-fired generation has reduced Turkiye’s power sector emissions, which fell by 5% to 68.3 million metric tonnes during the first half from the same months last year.

Import impact

Lower overall electricity generation from fossil fuels has meant that Turkiye’s import needs for power generation fuels also dropped during the first half of the year.

Thermal coal purchases contracted by 5% over the first half of 2024 from the first half of 2023 to 9.5 million tonnes, according to ship tracing data from Kpler.

Turkiye’s imports of liquefied natural gas dropped by 28% during the first half of the year to 13.6 million tonnes, and the lowest for the first half of the year since 2019.

Turning higher?

Turkiye’s purchases and use of fossil fuels will likely turn higher over the coming months due to the seasonal tendency for hydro power generation to decline sharply from July onwards due to lower rainfall.

To make up for that decline in such a key source of clean energy, power firms will likely need to lift generation from coal-fired plants to ensure round-the-clock electricity supplies.

In 2023, July and August marked the highest months for coal-fired generation in Turkiye that year, just as hydro generation started to fall sharply from its highs during the spring months.

In 2024, coal generation trends could well follow the same path and climb during the peak summer months.

However, the total coal generation growth may be limited by higher output from solar farms during the sunniest months of the year.

And if wind farms can repeat the strong performance seen during the last two summers – when output peaked from July through September – Turkiye’s power firms may be able to keep overall fossil generation in check, and keep clean energy as the primary source of the country’s electricity. — Reuters

Gavin Maguire is a columnist for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.