Türkiye Electricity Review 2024 | Ember
Although Türkiye has added 11 GW of wind and solar capacity in the last five years, other European countries have proved this is possible in a single year.
Rooftop solar potential can help Türkiye reach its targets
According to the NEP, solar energy capacity is set to reach 52 GW in 2035. To meet this target, an annual average of 3.4 GW of new solar capacity is foreseen to be added. To date, the highest annual installation for solar power plants was 2.3 GW, reached in 2018, and the average annual new capacity over the past five years was 1.3 GW. In 2023, Türkiye installed 2 GW of new solar power plants. However, the country needs to double its current solar power plant installation rate by two and a half times and install 5.3 GW in the next two years alone in order to reach its targets.
EU countries have demonstrated that this rate of deployment is achievable. In 2023, Germany increased its solar installations by 85% compared to the previous year and installed 14.5 GW of new capacity. Similarly, in 2023 alone, Spain built approximately 2 GW of solar installations aimed at self-consumption and a total of 8.2 GW solar capacity. Meanwhile, Italy and Poland added 5.2 and 4.1 GW of new capacity respectively. The total EU solar market grew by 40% compared to last year and 100% compared to two years ago, reaching a record of 56 GW of new installations in 2023. Türkiye can utilise its rooftop solar potential to catch up with installation rates in EU countries and get on track to meet its clean energy targets. Rooftops in Türkiye have a technical potential of 120 GW and can meet 45% of the country’s total electricity demand.
Wind power target is far from ambitious
As of the end of 2023, Türkiye had an installed wind power capacity of 11.8 GW, while the NEP’s 2035 forecast for wind power plants is 30 GW. Regarding Türkiye’s 150 GW of wind potential, the target seems to be falling behind. Considering that the target is 24 GW by the end of 2035, excluding offshore installation target in the same period -which is 5 GW- it is aimed that only 1 GW of new onshore wind capacity will be added annually. Despite the low capacity installed in 2023, Türkiye has an average installation of 960 MW over the last five years, thus, it is evident that the set target is far from ambitious.
On the other hand, within the scope of the Renewable Energy Zones (YEKA) model, which entered into force in 2016, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources has finalised tenders for more than 6 GW of capacity to date. By the end of 2023, only 1.3 GW of this capacity (Karapınar solar power plant, Bor 2-3 solar power plant, Akköy WPP) was realised. Although 2.9 GW of wind capacity was allocated under YEKA, only 25 MW of this capacity was commissioned by the end of 2023. The realisation of the capacities allocated under the YEKA model should be closely monitored and the process must be accelerated.
Additionally, in August 2023, the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources updated the offshore wind YEKA that had been announced in 2016 but later cancelled. It plans to initiate the investment process for the offshore wind YEKA located in the offshore areas in Bandırma, Bozcaada, Karabiga, and Gelibolu, after taking into account relevant technical studies and the opinions of public institutions. In the NEP, the installed capacity of offshore wind is set as 5 GW until 2035. Considering the low rate of realisation of onshore wind YEKAs, it is predicted that the commissioning of offshore YEKAs will take place over longer periods due to technical and financial challenges.
How to achieve climate goals remains unclear as dependency grows
Türkiye’s dependence on imported fuels for electricity generation increased from 41% to 43% in 2022, with no improvement in the dependency ratio for the last four years. The increase in import dependency is due to the rising share of fossil fuels in electricity generation. At the same time, reliance on imported fossil fuels for electricity generation is also contributing to a rise in carbon emissions. Despite the rising share of renewable energy in total electricity generation, carbon emissions from electricity generation are at 2017 levels.
