Turkish Stock Exchange Breaks a Historic Record

The dollar was reduced to 1 million 370, 000 liras and Treasury bond compound interest rates regressed to 24 percent due to the positive atmosphere. According to economists, the political agenda’s gradually decreasing influence on the economy due to stability affected the increase in the stock exchange.

Reduction in inflation boosted investors. Last year, wholesale prices increased 13, 9 percent and consumer prices increased 18, 4 percent –better than the anticipated rates of 16, 5 percent and 20 percent respectively. Yapi Kredi Bank shares closed at a maximum price of 3,550 liras by 15, 45 percent premium in the stock exchange, which has been in an upturn trend for a while. Yapi Kredi shares had a stir last week after Cukurova Group announced made an offer to the Banking Regulations and Supervision Board and the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) to pay debts in advance. Experts stress that the expectation that Yapi Kredi could pay the debts in the meetings with TMSF continued to drive up the price.

Koc Portfolio Administrator, Merih Yildirim, said, ‘upward movement continues due to the positive expectations concerning the first quarter of 2004, continuing reduction of inflation and a reduction of both interests and rate of exchange. Although sales for profit are performed after the increase, these are covered.’ Gedik Investment research expert, Serdar Ceylan said, ‘when we consider the developments in interests and the foreign exchange market, we see that the political agenda has lost its former effect on the market and positive expectations in the economy have become more effective.’ Besides, experts say that they think SPK’s condition for publicly held companies to distribute 20 percent of the distributable profit as dividends is positive for making the company dividends popular.

Purchases start to change direction towards ISE-100 shares

According to stock exchange experts’ activity around ISE-30, which are expensive locomotive shares, a direction toward cheap but high expectation shares is beginning, which are in the ISE-100 index. Experts said that activity in the main sectors like banking, automotive, resistant consumption in 2003 are now reflected on energy companies in addition to food, glass, construction and cement since interests reduced due to the positive atmosphere in the economy. Besides, analysts said that there are increasing purchases in electronic producing companies for the telecommunication sector. Nergis Kasabali, of Ata Investment, said, ‘movements in the IMKB, after the 2001 crises, have focused on the ISE-30 index. Decreases began just the before the market went up. Now, purchases are directed toward cheap shares that have expectations and ISE-30 shares. The movement started as ISE-30 and then 30 coming after it. Now it is clearly experienced in the ISE-100 index. This is very positive.’

The Dollar and Euro together with interest were lower then the Friday closings. The dollar, reducing in the interbank market, closed the day at 1 million 376 liras; however it was less then 1 million 370,000 liras in valor transactions. Bankers say the positive atmosphere will continue. A Treasury official of a bank said, ‘now regardless of interest reduction, there will be a decrease in the rate of exchange because, I think, the connection between them no longer exists. This is because the atmosphere and expectations are positive.’

While anticipating that the dollar could decrease to 1 million 350,000 liras, bankers do not expect interference from the Central Bank for now. Since better than expected inflation amounts strengthened the decreased expectations for short-term interests and general interests, bonds are more attractive at the present interest level. The interests of the bond that received the most transactions dropped 1 point by 24 percent in comparison to Friday’s closing figure.