Turkish Cyprus election

In this part of the world, active participation in civic society is generally frowned upon in the levantine heat. Which is why I have been impressed with the energy and support Mehemet Ali Talat’s CTP have forged throughout this election campaign. As it draws to its finale, talk amongst everyone in the CTP camp is of nothing but total victory. If you didn’t know better you would be unwise to disagree. Throughout this campaign Talat has shone out in every interview, television debate and any face to face confrontation with his opponents. Although the oratory skills of the other opposition leader Mustafa Akinci seemed to make you agree with him more, Talat is the leader of the larger party that looks very likely to be forming the next government , but don’t forget this is the TRNC.

Here the prime minister and leader of the largest ruling party has been almost silent throughout this campaign. He has lost almost every TV debate to the leftist opposition and has failed to convince any swing voters of his authenticity in honouring his election pledge. In fact if there is any reason to vote him out of power it would be exactly this. The ruling UBP have failed to deliver on every election pledge and on top of this the currency devaluation in Turkey 2 years ago has meant that most people in Northern Cyprus have seen a lowering of their living standards. Despite this, last minute money has started pouring in and the age old Middle Eastern trait of patronage is yet again in full swing. The newly inaugurated citizens of the TRNC are receiving food gifts of rice, pasta and bread, a symbolic gesture to the Anatolian populace not to mention a full tank of petrol if you turn up to a party political rally. This may seem like a blatant buy off but is small change compared to the Greek sector, who give their supporters a return airfare wherever they are in the world to come back and vote for them.

It all reminds me of the last days of John Major and the conservative regimes grip on the country before the Blairist intervention. However, I believe that unlike in 1997 the outcome will be different. Even though the streets are packed with CTP supporters and although their rallies are the most impressive and have the largest turnouts, I believe that the silent majority will turn out to vote for the ruling conservative elements. The demographics of Cyprus have changed and the voice of rural Anatolia has become the true gatekeeper to this election. As a political analyst this is why I believe that the real election result will not be how much the pretenders will gain this Sunday but exactly how much they will lose by. It will be here where the new battle will begin and will eventually decide the true outcome of this Sundays historic day in the TRNC.