Turkey’s decision on Azerbaijan

Although there are some people believing that it is not necessary to develop a new Caucasus policy and existing balances should be maintained, everyone agrees that it is a priorty for Turkey to develop a healthy analysis on the relations between Turkey and Armenia as well as relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

A Turkey adamant on carrying out its relations with Armenia based on its relations with Azerbaijan currently has serious troubles as to how it will shape its future relations with Azerbaijan.

Moreover, the future of Azeri-Armenian relations is not clear, too.

Amid widely spoken rumors that Haydar Aliyev is dead but this demise is being kept secret, his son was Ilham Aliyev promptly appointed prime minister of Azerbaijan. This was accepted and supported by Turkey, forming a vague point of relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan.

How can Turkey, having troubled relations with opposition leaders such as Resul Galiyev and Isa Kamber, have a say in the upcoming process if it continues to support Ilham Aliyev?

Amid predictions that Azerbaijan is rapidly heading for a civil war, it seems unlikely for Turkey to make any new moves.

It is the picture of Turkey that is one of the sides of the discussion.

Opposition Coordination Center, collecting the majority of opposition parties of Azerbaijan under its umbrella, issued a declaration stating that it won’t recognize any resolution or other official documents signed by President Aliyev until his health situation becomes clear. It is possible to say that Turkey could not see the whole picture in Azerbaijan as its president and prime minister issued congratulation messages saying that Turkey will maintain its cooperation with the country while the center was making this statement.

While it has been alleged that Ilham Aliyev cannot be appointed as the prime minister of Azerbaijan as he is already a presidential candidate, and it is discussed whether appointment meant capturing the power illegally or not, it can be said that Turkey follows a policy that commits itself to only one aspect.

There are various different rumors and predictions in Ankara.

It is claimed that the signature on the document appointing Ilham Aliyev as the prime minister was fake and it is rumored that Haydar Aliyev is already dead but this fact is being kept secret. There are allegations that Resul Guliyev is aiming at passing to Azerbaijan from Turkey but Turkey does not allow him to do so. According to another rumor, upcoming Azeri elections will be postponed and Turkey gives a green light to this.

And, in the midst of these rumors, Turkey is trapped in a difficult position in its relations with the Iraqi Turkmens due to the policy it followed for some time and this relation is damaged seriously. The same thing can place with Turkey’s relations with Azerbaijanis.