Turkey: The next 18 months will be fabulous

1. ECONOMY:
For two years the country has waited for the day on which it would get rid of the crisis and of unemployment. Markets’ morale runs high but there is a certain uneasiness.

This is because the next year will see local elections and, most likely, a referendum. Everybody walks on eggshells, wondering whether the AK Party will give priority to economy or to politics.

If reforms can be kept up this will boost confidence, giving great relief. It will become definite that economy will be out of the crisis and start growing once again. Interest rates will go down and internal-external investments will increase. Otherwise the current expectations will be in vain.

2. THE YOK LAW:
The AK Party has the ability to amend the Constitution on its own. In the next few months we will see how it intends to use that power. The Higher Education Board (YOK) Bill will be the first test.

Will the AK Party say, "We are powerful and we can do what we want," or will it take cautious measures, taking into consideration the general balances and sensitivities?

Will Turkey have social peace or instability? A sounder democracy or an increase in the influence exerted by the military? In other words, will there be a secularist-Islamist fight or will Turkey close that book and step into a brand new era in which social peace would flourish?

If Turkey can step into that stage the country’s path will be cleared indeed.

3. THE IRAQ OPERATION:
The most critical test of Turkey’s relations with the U.S. will be the nature of the role the Turkish Armed Forces will play in Iraq. This is also the most sensitive spot in Turkey’s relations with the Islamic world and with Europe.

This is an extremely dangerous role. It is not clear at all what it will lead to. Everything will depend on the developments "in the field". A favorable result would give Turkey relief whereas a negative one would cause troubles for Turkey.

4. EU PRACTICE:
The next 16 months will be a test also because it will be seen clearly whether the harmonization with the European Union passed by Parliament will be implemented fully or not.

Have all these legal amendments nothing but an attempt at deception? Or are they the sign of a genuine, historic transformation?

If Turkey manages to implement these without any shortcomings then — even if it fails to obtain a date from the EU for the start of the accession talks — it will rise into the First League, becoming a rising star.

5. CYPRUS:
The last chance for a solution will be used in the next 16 months or Turkey will lose all its advantages in Cyprus.

The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) will have to do with minority rights unless a solution satisfactory to both sides can be found by May.

A solution, on the other hand, will clear Turkey’s path, increasing greatly Turkey’s "weight" in the international community and prestige.

6. A DATE FROM EU:
December 2004 will probably be the most critical period.

The EU summit will then announce when the accession talks with Turkey would begin.

If the EU sets a date for a definite rensezvous to take placein 2005, Turkey will be galloping economically, socially and in the international relations arena. The country will become more confident and get back on its feet.

The most important decision in the history of the republic will have been taken.

If that proves to be an unfavorable one the country will be pushed into darkness, into dangerous waters, especially regarding the domestic balances.