Turkey stuck at peak inflation
The inflation projection for the end of 2026 has also been raised from 18.5 percent to 19.2 percent. Accordingly, Turkey will be the country with the highest inflation in 2026. Argentina’s inflation is expected to fall to 16.5 percent in the same year.
Inflation estimates exceeded the official estimates of the economic administration led by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek. In the Medium-Term Program (MTP) announced at the beginning of September, the 2025 inflation target was raised from 17.5 percent to 28.5 percent, an increase of 11 points from the previous estimate. The forecast for 2026 was announced as 16 percent in the latest MTP. The Central Bank’s inflation expectation for the end of 2025 is between 24 and 29 percent.
The report included in the forecasts stated, “Inflation is expected to decline, but risks remain,” while drawing attention to the effects of the weakening labor markets on the decline in inflation.
The report states, “While overall inflation is expected to fall from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026, core inflation in advanced G20 economies will generally remain stable, showing a slight decline from 2.6 percent to 2.5 percent. However, inflationary pressures may re-emerge,” while emphasizing that in some countries, the slowdown in the rate of decline in inflation is accompanied by rising goods prices and persistent service inflation.
GROWTH PREDICTIONS REVISED
Growth predictions for Turkey were also revised in the report. According to the organization, the country’s economy will grow by 3.2 percent in 2025. The previous growth forecast was 2.9 percent. The growth expectation for 2026 was lowered from 3.3 percent to 3.2 percent.
In the OECD report, the 2025 growth forecast for the US economy was raised from 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent, while it remained at 1.5 percent for 2026. The Eurozone’s 2025 growth forecast was raised from 1% to 1.2%, while the 2026 forecast was lowered from 1.2% to 1%. The 2025 forecast for China was raised from 4.7% to 4.9%, while the 2026 forecast was raised from 4.3% to 4.4%.
Along with Trump’s pressure on the US Federal Reserve, the report stated that “ The independence of central banks is low and critical to ensuring stable inflation.” The report stated that “Debt is a particular concern in the US and France.”
Note: This article is translated from the original article titled Ülke enflasyonda zirveye kilitlendi, published in BirGün newspaper on September 24, 2025.
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