Turkey struggles with U.S. demand for support

The Council’s statement now puts the spotlight on Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, who must try and convince skeptical legislators to support the U.S. troop presence and a war in Iraq as the better of two unpopular choices.
"It is urgent that Turkey makes up its mind whether to allow the U.S. to come to Turkey or not,” wrote Ilnur Cevik, editor-in-chief of the Turkish Daily News. "This is where Abdullah Gul’s nightmare starts.”
It’s a decision that Gul has been trying to avoid. "Iraq is like Pandora’s box,” Gul said. "This box should not be opened.”
An overwhelming majority of Turks oppose a war and legislators from Gul’s Justice and Development Party have repeatedly spoken against participating in a war. Gul himself frequently emphasizes that there should be a peaceful solution to the crisis.
Diplomats have angrily pointed out that legislators have done little to prepare the public for the possibility that part of the war effort would be based in their country.
Some analysts fear that the ruling party, which has Islamic roots, could split, with hardliners refusing to endorse a war against fellow Muslims in Iraq.
"There is a potential for serious resistance,” said Soner Cagaptay, an analyst with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Experts say that Turkey’s US$10 billion tourism industry could be devastated if there is a war, possibly derailing the country’s emergence from its worse recession in decades. The military fears that Iraq will fall apart if Saddam Hussein is ousted, leading Kurds in the north to declare independence.

That could encourage Kurds in Turkey’s southeast, where Kurdish rebels and soldiers battled throughout the 1980s and most of the 1990s.

"Iraq should not disintegrate because it would be impossible to put everyone back into that box again,” Gul said.

Turkey has hinted strongly that it will send soldiers into northern Iraq to undermine any chance of a Kurdish state forming.

But that could lead to future tensions with the region’s other powerhouse, Iran, which also sees northern Iraq as in its own sphere of influence.

"Right now, Iran and Turkey are allies in trying to make sure that a Kurdish state is not established,” Cagaptay said.
"Iran would be happy for us to do the dirty work for them,” added Seyfi Tashan the director of the Foreign Policy Institute in Ankara.
But instability in the area could lead to later tensions between the neighbors, with secular Turkey and Islamic Iran competing for influence.
Analysts say that Turkey has little choice but to agree to at least limited support for an Iraq campaign.
"The consequences of Turkey not being involved in a campaign against Iraq are simply too terrible to imagine,” Cevik wrote.
Ignoring U.S. demands could alienate Turkey’s best ally at a time when Turkey is counting on Washington to help it press for its case for European Union membership.
Turkish leaders are also concerned that if they do not help in a war, they will be cut out of the postwar planning and unable to influence the creation of a new Iraq.
In addition, Turkey might not be able to count on U.S. aid in securing loans to prop up its economy. If Turkey takes part in a war "Turkey’s influence in the region will grow. It will be able to get more easily the things it seeks from Washington,” wrote columnist Mehmet Ali Birand in the Turkish Daily News. "If it does not take part … when Ankara calls Washington on the phone… these calls will not be returned.”