Turkey should thank Papadopoulos

April 26, 2004 admin-dominor

In the past, Turkey could not argue that its intervention in 1974 was justified and that the activities of the Greek Cypriots in the 1960s and later Greek colonels had forced its hand. Greek Cypriots would get the sympathy of the international community.

The policies of the political leaders, especially the Democratic People’s Party (DSP) leader Bulent Ecevit, that said the Cyprus issue had been solved in 1974, and there was nothing more to do, repeatedly tied Turkey’s hands. Turkey always faced significant pressure from the international community.

However, two developments of late, changed everything.

The first was a total change in the Turkish stance, by accepting the Annan plan and the people of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) approving it by a significant margin.

The second was the overwhelming rejection of the plan by the Greek Cypriot side.

The attitude of Greek Cypriot leaders, the arguments among themselves and the result of the referendum made these facts clear for all to see.

Greek Cypriots don’t want to live side by side with Turks. They like being segregated from Turks. They approve visits to the other side, but want to go back to their homes at night. They don’t approve of the bi-zonal federative structure that was accepted at the 1977 Makarios-Denktas summit, which became the basis of all subsequent attempts to find a solution. They see Turks only as a minority and want the entire island under their control.

Ankara spoiled their plan by accepting the Annan plan
We knew about these facts, but the world did not. When Turkey changed its policies, the real intent of Greek Cypriots became apparent. Turkey, in this respect, should thank Greek Cypriot leader Tassos Papadopoulos for his “NO” campaign.

Greek Cypriots may not realize this, but they have ensured the island’s division through their “NO” vote. Turkey can at last free itself from this burden. As a result of the negotiations for the Annan plan, the legitimacy of Turkey’s 1974 intervention in Cyprus has been recognized. From now on, Greek Cypriots cannot complain about the Turkish occupation, the settlers or human rights. Even if they do so, their arguments will not be credible.

Turkey cannot be accused of guilt by the international community anymore. The international community, the U.S. and especially the European Union cannot punish the Turkish side for the Greek Cypriot rejection. The efforts to legitimize the KKTC should immediately start.

The Annan plan may be dead and buried, but if another attempt at finding a solution is made in the future, no one should ask the Turkish side to accept anything less than the status granted by the Annan plan.

The ideal result would have been an approval by both sides. However, even this result has brought many advantages to the Turkish side.

Papadopoulos played a risky, but very clever game
Greek leader Papadopoulos showed that he was a first-rate politician. By initiating a “NO” campaign, he took some risks. Knowing that a rejection would cause some developments that favored the KKTC, even leading to recognition, and realizing that he would not be able to make accusations against Turkey in the international media, he made a very important political maneuver.

If you ask me, Papadopoulos took the scent of blood.

He calculated what he could obtain from Turkey in the future, and decided they were better than what the Annan plan offered.

Let’s not forget that the Annan plan was a disaster for Papadopoulos and his world view.

The state they were running for 30 years was being eliminated; they were going to share their wealth with the Turks and the presence of the Turkish army and the settlers were being legitimized. The advantages they received in this exchange were negligible.

While Turks could utilize the advantages of the plan almost immediately, Greek Cypriots could return to their lands in 12 years time (and then only partially) and get only a portion of their lands back.

Papadopoulos judged the situation and decided to go for some additional advantages that the future might bring.

It was obvious that he knew about how the people on the street felt. He utilized their fear to live side by side with Turks and their opposition to share their wealth masterfully. By saying “NO,” he saved the state and still ensured his countries membership to the EU. He postponed the solution by saying, “From now on, this is the EU’s problem.”

He was able to portray himself as the leader that saved the Greek Cypriot state.

Until when?

Until the start of Turkey’s membership negotiation process and Ankara becoming eligible for full membership. Papadopoulos will definitely support Turkey receiving a date to start membership negotiations. Because, according to his game plan, they can receive even more during Turkey’s negotiations. A Turkey that is left out of the EU would be dangerous.

Papadopoulos will play his hand during these negotiations and utilize the veto card to get all that he can.

Can he succeed? Nothing is certain.

The future may favor Greek Cypriots. The present developments may be forgotten. Turkey may forget its past mistakes and become careless, forgetting to be a step ahead of Greek Cypriots.

As I said, Papadopoulos took a very risky, very courageous decision, and initiated a process that might result in a better deal for himself. The only thing he should be careful about is that Turkey has woken up and is playing the game.

Don’t ignore Papadopoulos.

SOUTH CYPRUS; A HEAVEN …