Turkey in the center of politics in the Middle East

The landslide victory of the Justice and Development Party in recent elections and a booming economy, in the first half grew by 10.2% – have given a growing domestic popularity Erdogan, and this, coupled with anti-Israeli policy in recent times and support for Palestine at the UN to achieve recognition as a state, has allowed to perform as a champion of the Arab cause and leader of the new role that Turkey wants to play.

Change in Turkish foreign relations

Turkish foreign relations have been more autonomous drift since 2007 but has been with the ascension of Professor Ahmet Davutoglu to foreign minister in 2009, when the trend is more evident, and its most visible signs of the lack of progress in approach to the European Union and the break with Israel.

Turkey away from Europe and looks more to the Arab world and other venues such as Asia and Africa, both the rejection of his candidacy to the EU, as this perception of being less attractive. The offer of a "special relationship" does not satisfy the aspirations of Turkey. However, strained ties with the West, and even improves its relations with the United States to accept the installation of a radar as part of the missile defense system of NATO, while requesting Predator UAV to fight Kurds .

The Turkey had good relations with Israel, to remain neutral in the Arab-Israeli conflict came to offer himself as mediator with Syria and even the close cooperation on defense, have deteriorated following the attacks on Gaza, and especially from the assault on the Mavi Marmara while trying to break the blockade and Israel’s refusal to apologize for the attack, to the point of expulsion from the Israeli ambassador to Turkey. All of a strategic change in order to approach the Arab world.

In the case of Syria, Turkey has been slow to respond, as in Libya and has only given a twist to their relationship with the former trading partner, when he saw that Assad did not listen to his advice to stop the slaughter . Now he has severed all contact with the Syrian authorities, the opposition has welcomed allowing the Syrian National Council meetings and said the ships intercepting arms embargo.

Alliance with Egypt

Another of the most striking changes in the orientation of Turkish foreign relations has been its approach to the Arab countries before and now courted neglected for the sake of "psychological affinity" with the world that ruled the Ottoman Empire for four centuries. In an interview before leaving for the United Nations, the Turkish Foreign Minister, has predicted an alliance with Egypt. In the words of Davutoglu, it would be an axis of power would not go against anybody or against Israel or against Iran, but would extend democracy from the Black Sea in the north to the Nile Valley in the south.

Although it may be premature to consider an alliance between Turkey and Egypt, what is certain is that the political support of the visit of Erdogan meets economics. Turkey intends to increase investments in Egypt which would rise from 1,500 million dollars at present to 5,000 in two years and bilateral trade, which now reaches 3,500 million dollars, is expected to reach 5,000 to the end of 2012 and 10,000 in 2015.

The alliance between Turkey and Egypt, two of the most powerful military and most populous, would be a new realignment in the Middle East at a time of diminishing U.S. influence in the region are low hours and traditional allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt itself.

Doctrine of "zero problems" with a belligerent position

Parallel to the shift in foreign relations, Turkey has evolved from the doctrine of "zero problems with neighbors" for a more active and even belligerent, distancing itself from Iran and again confronted by a dispute with Greece, Cyprus, now further complicated by the discovery of oil in the Mediterranean off the coast of Cyprus.

It is true that the policy of "zero problems" had not borne much fruit. They still have problems with Armenia and Cyprus but, above all, has not resolved the main vulnerability is Turkish and the Kurdish problem, a PKK continues to sow insecurity with actions like the recent bombing in downtown Ankara, and attacks in Anatolia, despite the bombings and the constant threat of Turkish ground incursion into northern Iraq.

The start of drilling in the gas fields by the Republic of Cyprus, only recognized internationally, has been described by Turkey as a provocation that threatens the reunification of the island, expected in 2012. According to Ankara, "are not defined the boundaries of economic zones in the eastern Mediterranean" and therefore the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus should be co-owned farms.

The fact that Cyprus is expected to assume the EU presidency in July 2012, and especially that Israel is also involved when Nicosia partner in exploration, adds a new dimension to the tension that so far has already caused scans the beginning of the Turks and the threat of sending warships to the area.