Turkey has done the right thing

What happened in Northern Iraq on Thursday and Friday drew strong reactions from Ankara and, curiously, the Americans did immediately whatever was required. They sent their troops into Mosul and Kerkuk. They took control.

Turkey’s reaction was justified.

If Ankara had not been stirred into action both the Kurds and the Americans might have gotten the wrong message, thinking, "Turkey is not attaching great importance to this issue." With that impression they might have taken further steps — leading to a much more dangerous situation in the future.

The Americans too had a prompt reaction. They have shown that they take into consideration Turkey’s sensitivities and that they will keep the pledges they have made.

Naturally, this is only the beginning. There will be many more tugs-of-war in Northern Iraq. As I said yesterday Ankara will have to solve its problem with Washington.

There must not be an anti-Kurdish coalition
The end is drawing near in the Iraq War though it may take some more time for the USA to complete the invasion and bring the country fully under control. There may be some more clashes but the Saddam regime does not have the strength to resist anymore.

Now the focus is on Saddam’s and Iraq’s future.

The preparations being made in Washington are aimed at turning Iraq into a real "model country" for the region. Plans are being made to ensure that people will look up to Iraq — rather than to Turkey — as a model country.

A secular, democratic country that has managed to "melt" inside it the ethnic and religious diversities, would constitute a model. To what extent can that be achieved? Time will show.

Hard days for Turkey
If the U.S. plans can be fully implemented, that is, if the Iraqi people bow down fully to the coalition forces and accept their authority, the new Iraq can, to some extent, steal the how to Turkey’s disadvantage.

Meanwhile, one must not create the impression the kind of alliance that may be perceived as an anti-Turkish front, is being created in the region. I am referring to the Syria – Turkey – Iran dialogue.

It is only natural for these three countries to have consultations among them. However, if these talks went further than that and turn into an anti-Kurdish coalition or cooperation, that could create significant problems.

If this trio projected the "hostile to Kurds" kind of image — especially if Turkey organized such cooperation — that would do Turkey harm in the long run, creating undue new tensions.

By rejecting the "U.S. troop deployment in Turkey and Turkish troop deployment in Northern Iraq" motion, Turkey has reduced its own effectiveness in the region to a great extent. By not sending troops into Northern Iraq Turkey may have saved itself from getting stuck in a swamp. On the other hand, because of that Turkey will not have a say in the new Iraq to be built.

Now staging an indirect show of force, giving the impression that a front is being created against the Kurds, will not affect the outcome while harming Turkey’s international image.

Whether an independent Kurdish state will be established in Iraq — and whether the Kurds will be given a share of the Kerkuk oil — depend entirely on the deciison to be taken by Washington and London.

By now Turkey has been left outside the loop. The "address" where the problem will be solved, is Washington-London.

These two capitals will conduct policies — not in order to allay Turkey’s worries or to kiss and make up with Turkey — but by taking into consideration the intra-Iraqi balances. They will take decisions entirely with long-term considerations.

Iran and Syria are important countries
Iran and Syria are important countries of the region. Iran, especially, is hardly a country that the USA can easily swallow like it has swallowed Iraq.

Syria, meanwhile, is in the hot seat. The slightest mistake will cost Syria’s Baath Party very dearly.

In such a climate would not it be better for Turkey not to create the wrong impression — until the dust settled?