Turkey braces for influx of refugees if war breaks out

This time, Turkey is looking to move up to 15 miles into northern Iraq to build camps for up to 200,000 people, a move that would keep the refugees out of Turkey and remind Iraqi Kurds of the power of their northern neighbor.

Six to 10 refugee camps would be built in Iraq and guarded by Turkish or coalition forces, said Oktay Ergunay, the deputy general director of the Turkish Red Crescent, which would provide much of the initial relief supplies. Another six camps would be built in Turkey to deal with any overflow.

”The main aim is to keep the refugees in northern Iraq,” Ergunay said.

Turkey has repeatedly told Washington it opposes a war in northern Iraq but has also made it clear that if there is a war, Turkey would have little choice but to support the effort. Turkey borders northern Iraq and the use of its territory and air bases is considered crucial to any war effort.

Turkey has also said war must not lead to the creation of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq and has spoken repeatedly of its concerns of a flood of refugees.

Sending the Turkish Red Crescent into Iraq — possibly backed by the Turkish army — would send a message to the Iraqi Kurds, who already run an autonomous area, that Turkish concerns must be respected.

Turkey already has several thousand commandos backed by tanks in northern Iraq to hunt anti-Turkish guerrillas. The force is expected to grow sharply if there is a war in the area, both to provide stability and to make clear to the Kurds that a state is not an option.

Turkish and U.S. officials have said Turkish Kurdish guerrillas used the 1991 exodus to smuggle arms and fighters into Turkey. Turkey also fears the highly politicized Iraqi Kurds could influence Turkish Kurds.

The Red Crescent already has supplies for 80,000 — tents, hygiene kits, blankets and kitchen supplies — in warehouses earmarked for any refugees.

”The authorities must be ready,” Ergunay said. He quickly added that the government is organizing for a worst-case scenario. If there is little or no fighting in the north, there would be few refugees.

Those supplies are part of an emergency stockpile designed for use in case of an earthquake in Turkey but could be moved quickly to the Iraqi border.

Tents from U.N. agencies that were used to house refugees in the Balkans have already arrived in Turkey as part of a U.N. effort that would support the Turkish relief efforts, sources said.