Turkey: Adverse winter weather forecast across southeastern and central Turkey (Turkiye) through at least April 12

April 11, 2023 admin-dominor

Event

Thunderstorms, heavy snowfall, and heavy rainfall are forecast across much of southeastern and central Turkey (Turkiye) through at least April 12. Hazardous travel conditions are likely across the affected area. As of early April 12, the Turkish General Directorate of Meteorology has issued the following warnings across the affected area:

Orange thunderstorm warnings (second-highest level on a four-tier scale): Batman, Diyarbakir, Hakkari, Siirt, and Sirnak provinces.
Orange rainfall warnings: Bingol and Tunceli provinces.
Yellow thunderstorm, snowfall, and rainfall warnings: the rest of the affected area.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Much of southern and eastern Turkey is still recovering from the magnitude-7.8 and magnitude-7.5 earthquakes that occurred around 37 km (23 miles) west-northwest of Gaziantep Feb. 6. The adverse weather could exacerbate the damages and disrupt recovery efforts due to hazardous travel conditions, possible lightning, flooding, and landslides, and the weight of snow on damaged structures. The earthquakes destroyed thousands of homes; many residents live in tents and container homes in numerous temporary accommodation centers across the region.

In addition to the wintry precipitation, strong wind gusts could lead to periods of blowing and drifting snow. Decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas and there is also the possibility of avalanches where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions in affected areas over the coming days. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles throughout the affected area.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. The disruptive weather will likely cause delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees’ inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for updated weather information. Verify road conditions before driving in areas where heavy snowfall is forecast. Allow extra time to reach destinations in these areas and carry an emergency kit and warm clothes if driving is necessary, especially on secondary or rural routes that could become impassable. Plan accordingly for delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Confirm flights. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.