Tuesday briefing: Ukraine’s future, Sweden v Turkey and the big questions at Nato’s annual summit | Nato

First Edition

Tue 11 Jul 2023 06.40 BST

Good morning.

Today, Nato members are gathered in Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital, for their annual summit. Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the military alliance seemed to have lost a lot of its purpose, and was desperately seeking relevance. Now, thanks to the threat posed by the Kremlin, it has been revitalised. The agenda is packed and the goal is to try to create common ground and settle the conflicting goals and desires of its members, as well as making key decisions on the war in Ukraine and redefining what the future of a relationship between Russia and Nato might look like.

Will Ukraine finally get clarity on when it will join Nato? Will member states increase their defence spending? Will Joe Biden give Erdoğan fighter jets despite a lack of congressional approval? These are just some of the questions that will be hashed out in the coming 48 hours.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s diplomatic editor, Patrick Wintour, about what’s on the table at the Nato summit. That’s right after the headlines.

Five big stories

1. BBC | The young person at the centre of a scandal over a BBC presenter reportedly paying for explicit pictures has issued a statement through a lawyer claiming the key allegations are “rubbish”. The lawyer told BBC News a denial was provided to the Sun before the publication of the original story but the tabloid pressed ahead, without including the young person’s side.

2. Immigration | Controversial plans to house asylum seekers on a barge to reduce reliance on expensive hotels will save less than £10 a person a day, according to a report from the NGOs Reclaim The Seas and One Life To Live.

3. UK news | A teenager has been arrested on suspicion of attempted murder after a male teacher at a school in Gloucestershire was stabbed and taken to hospital. The school was placed into lockdown until Monday afternoon when pupils were sent home to their parents. The teacher was later released from hospital.

4. Environment | The beginning of July was the hottest week on record for the planet as a whole, according to the World Meteorological Organization. This year had already seen the hottest June on record, the UN body said, driven by climate change and the early stages of an El Niño weather pattern.

5. Theranos | Elizabeth Holmes’ prison sentence was quietly shortened by two years, new records show. Holmes had reported to a minimum-security, federal women’s prison camp in Texas after being convicted in November 2022 on four counts of defrauding investors and sentenced to 11 years and three months.

In depth: What’s at stake as world leaders descend on Vilnius

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When will Ukraine become a Nato member?

Ukraine has been trying to become a Nato member for years, but Putin made it clear that if the alliance were to cultivate closer ties with Ukraine – let alone admit it as a member – there would be significant consequences.

And then the invasion happened. Nato has, for the last year and a half, been helping Ukraine by supplying equipment, money and training – but immediate membership has never been less likely, even though Kyiv formally requested a fast track accession last September.

The reasons are pretty simple. Nato’s core Article 5 collective defence principle, which means that an attack on one member state is an attack on all members, would effectively result in a global war. “[Nato] would actually have to be sending troops, possibly ground troops, into battle. That’s why they can’t do it now,” Patrick says.

So – if not now, when? One alternative route, supported by a number of Nato members is that Ukraine could be given a fast track in the same way that Finland has. “This would mean that when the war is over, Ukraine would automatically be allowed to join on the basis that most of its weaponry will be compatible with Nato and that it will be in tune with how Nato thinks and operates,” Patrick says. However, from the latest reports on the last-minute talks before the summit starts today, the expectation is that Nato members will not set clear preconditions for Ukraine’s membership.

Some have argued that giving Ukraine a clear timeline almost incentivises Russia to keep the war going to stop that from happening. Others have said that framing Ukraine’s Nato membership like this effectively gives Putin a veto.

The US and Germany want to tread even more carefully in case of further antagonising Putin, who has been paranoid about Nato expanding eastward towards Russia’s border. “A lot of it ultimately comes down to a dispute about what will be the future relationship between the west and Russia once this war ends,” says Patrick.

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Security guarantees for Ukraine

Outside of membership, another key part of the summit will be the question of security guarantees for Ukraine as the war grinds on. “There’s going to be an extension of what’s already happening but put on a longer timeframe,” Patrick says. Nato will continue to supply arms, particularly weaponry that is compatible with Nato, and there will also likely be some kind of joint production of ammunition and weaponry between Ukraine and Nato members.

“The value of the security guarantees will depend on how specific they are and, as far as I can see, they’re still being worked out even though we’re on the eve of the summit,” Patrick adds.

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Sweden joining Nato

Ukraine is not the only country wanting member status – Sweden has been trying to join the alliance since the start of Russia’s invasion, ending decades of neutrality and military non-alignment. Most of the members had no objections. However, for the past year, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has stood in the way of Sweden’s accession, alleging that the country is housing Kurdish separatist “terrorist” groups, in particular the militant Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK).

Things were further complicated when Erdoğan threw in fresh demands that the EU renew talks with Turkey to finally get a seat at the EU table – where there is no enthusiasm to allow Turkey to join. “Erdoğan is the kind of guy who looks for leverage and traction. He saw that if he vetoed Sweden’s membership he would have a bargaining chip, which he didn’t have hitherto,” Patrick says.

For a while, it really looked the stalemate between Turkey and Sweden would remain. However, after last-ditch talks last night, Erdoğan finally agreed to set aside his veto and support Sweden’s accession. This leaves Hungary as the last country standing in the way, though its prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has implied he will move soon.

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Money matters

Ukraine and Sweden are just two of a plethora of topics that leaders will have to go through. There is a lot of discussion to be had about the amount of support the eastern flank of Nato will receive. “The feeling is that the security situation in Poland may have changed as a result of the Wagner group installing themselves in Belarus, so there’s quite a push by the Poles to get more support,” Patrick says.

And then there is the small question of budgets and spending. In 2014, members agreed to move towards spending 2% of their GDP on defence by 2024. As that deadline approaches, leaders in Vilnius will agree to make 2% the floor – rather than the ceiling – of spending. “In reality, there’s still a lot of Nato member states that have not reached 2% but will soon,” Patrick adds.

Nato allies have 48 hours to settle divisions and disparate goals, all the while the conflict continues. “The leaders have ended up with a global blancmange of issues,” Patrick concludes. “Trying to get them all sorted and aligned at the same time is really hard.”

What else we’ve been reading

• I really enjoy a Guardian How we made where you really, genuinely have no clue how the thing in question came together, and the latest – on Hot Chip’s wonderfully weird Over and Over – doesn’t disappoint. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

• Microplastics are everywhere – in your food, in the air, in the soil and even in your blood. Amy Fleming asked scientists what this means for our health and how we can try to avoid them. Nimo

• I love that The Cut (£) have done a whole series on Esther Perel, from the celeb therapist’s favourite erotic movies to her advice on giving advice.
  Hannah

• Jon Henley is informative on how the Netherlands’ longest serving prime minister, Mark Rutte, who had a reputation of swerving scandal and criticism, could swerve no longer. Rutte stood down as his government collapsed over asylum policy. Nimo

• “I dropped Underworld in soup”: Zoe Williams’s latest column is on the annual struggle that is deciding on the perfect holiday read. Hannah

Sport

Tennis | Defending women’s champion Elena Rybakina is safely through to Wimbledon’s quarter-finals, after the 13th seed Beatriz Haddad Maia was forced to retire by a seemingly abrupt back injury. Novak Djokovic wrapped up a win over Hubert Hurkacz to keep the men’s title in sight. Carlos Alcaraz battled past Matteo Berrettini in the fourth round and will face Holger Rune, the sixth seed, who also reaches his first Wimbledon quarter-final after defeating Grigor Dimitrov. Meanwhile, 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva refused to shake umpire Louise Azemar Engzell’s hand after losing to Madison Keys, over a disputed penalty point.

US news | Larry Nassar, the disgraced former gymnastic doctor who was convicted of decades of abuse of women and girls under the guise of medical treatment, was reportedly stabbed multiple times, including in the chest and back, at a federal prison in Florida. Nassar is reportedly in stable condition.

Football | The England under-20s manager, Ian Foster, has left the Football Association to work as assistant manager to Steven Gerrard in Saudi Arabia. Foster, a former Liverpool scholar who led England to the under-19 European Championship title last year, has joined Gerrard at Ettifaq.

The front pages

“Young person at centre of BBC scandal says claims are ‘rubbish’” – our Guardian print splash this morning. The i has “BBC presenter did nothing wrong, claims young person at centre of ‘sex photo scandal’” and there’s a similar offering from the Daily Express: “Teen at heart of BBC star scandal says claims are ‘rubbish’”. The Daily Mirror’s strap and headline combo is “Sex pics storm teen: BBC star did nothing wrong”. The Sun sticks to its story with “Parents: BBC lied” – saying they told the broadcaster of their fears in May and “we only spoke out to help save vulnerable addict child”. The Daily Mail takes a different tack: “One in six people know who scandal-hit BBC star is” – the paper cites its own “snap poll”. “It’s OK Mum & Dad … we’re safe” – the Metro leads with the stabbing of a teacher and lockdown at a Gloucestershire school. “Hotels given millions to reserve beds for migrants” says the Times. The Daily Telegraph has “Ukraine to be offered ‘Nato-lite’ protection”. The top story in today’s Financial Times is “Bailey and Hunt urge wage restraint in joint pledge to conquer inflation”.

Today in Focus

Cure or fad? The truth about weight loss drugs

A new generation of weight loss drugs has caused a stir – offering impressive results. But are they really a silver bullet for the obesity epidemic?

Cartoon of the day | Henny Beaumont

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

14 years after her death aged 84, the music of Blossom Dearie is being discovered anew. The New York singer can count Kylie Minogue and Feist as fans; Jack White’s label is reissuing her work; and Fugees and De La Soul have sampled her songs. “It was the whole combination,” says mod icon Georgie Fame of his friend and mentor. “The unique sound of her voice, her way of playing and accompanying herself, her choice of unusual material.”

A new box set focuses on the jazz singer’s time in London. Discover Who I Am: The Fontana Years London 1966-1970, includes two CDs of previously unreleased studio recordings Dearie made with Ronnie Scott’s band, and celebrates a time when she was at her most appreciated: “Blossom got a fresh start at Ronnie Scott’s,” says Arlene Corwin, a friend and jazz singing contemporary . “Audiences loved her.”

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.