TIME’S UP ON CYPRUS

In this maneuver, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s plan will be accepted as the basis for negotiations, then talks will start and even if an agreement proves unreachable before May 1, at least Ankara will have shown its sincere desire for one.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan should bring a concrete Cyprus package to his visit to US President George W. Bush next week in Washington. The aim is to get Bush’s support for the Turkish side on the issue. However, this step alone won’t be enough. Erdogan should also present to Annan the document paper reflecting the Turkish side’s new negotiating positions. However, it’s difficult for the eight-day timetable to allow this. The first difficulty is that today Ankara lacks a common stance showing its position on negotiations. Actually there is a position paper prepared by the Foreign Ministry and supported by the government. However, Ankara’s policy hasn’t been finalized due to the military’s objections to this document.

This Friday’s National Security Council (NSC) meeting is expected to determine our common stance. However, some sections of the military are rejecting flexibility on Cyprus. The day after the NSC meeting, Erdogan will meet with Annan in Davos. Probably he will also participate in a common summit to be organized by Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) President Rauf Denktas the same evening. One day later, i.e. on January 25, Erdogan will go to the US and have a second meeting will Annan. This isn’t enough either because US diplomacy needs to be convinced about Ankara’s new opening before Wednesday so Bush and Erdogan can reach a consensus on the Cyprus issue. For example, Annan wants to present a Cyprus plan for referendum before May 1 to both sides on the island in order to open the talks. As part of this, Annan has asked Ankara, Athens and both sides on Cyrus for a ‘blank check’ on the referendum issue. Can Ankara give this check in one week? Difficult to say.

The success of Erdogan’s visit to Washington depends on whether all these preparations can be completed by the beginning of next week. If they can’t, Erdogan’s visit to Washington might be crippled. Another critical question is, will President Ahmet Necdet Sezer just sit and watch a possible deadlock? Or would he use his influence to open Ankara’s path?”