Through the end of begining (Turkey’s EU membership)

So we’re close to the day of reckoning, or as France calls it, the hour of reality. As one European diplomat said, the commission’s decision should be considered the ‘end of the beginning.’ The ensuing ‘complementary stage’ will be the decision of the European Council during its summit on Dec. 17. If both the commission progress report and the council’s final decision are positive, we will enter the stage of the ‘beginning of the end,’ which will last for years from the date given for membership negotiations. Now we all hope that it will be a ‘happy ending.’ There are a great many signals pointing to the situation being that way. Actually the report examining the possible impact of Turkey’s EU membership tells EU leaders and politicians why they should admit us. Its message is clear: Turkey will benefit from EU membership, but so will the EU. In other words, Turkey’s integration with the EU is a ‘win-win’ situation. Europeans who are inclined to understanding this should heed the commission’s advice.

Contrary to the atmosphere favoring Turkey on the ‘official’ side of the EU, signals from the publics of certain countries aren’t so good. For example, the situation in France is more negative than in any other EU member. The results of a poll published in French daily Le Figaro showed 56% of the public against Turkey’s EU membership while 36% favor it. The rationales for rejecting us vary, namely religion (25%), history and culture (30%), the geographical situation (26), economic fears especially concerning a wave of immigrants, etc. Of course there are strong arguments to allay these fears. These issues are addressed in various EU reports. Fortunately the objections in France aren’t about starting our membership negotiations, but membership itself. We have a lot of time before that. Thus, there’s no serious reason for French President Jacques Chirac to object to giving us a date for membership negotiations. As one French diplomat recently told me, ‘If Chirac had been ready to object, he would have tried to sway other leaders on the issue.’ Later, the situation might change. Maybe a referendum might be requested on our membership. Likewise, France is discussing it now. We will hear such things from now on. But first, we should reach the end of the beginning.”