Three Messages From The U.S. To Turkey

1. The US will protect Kirkuk. Turkey is especially concerned that if Iraq falls apart at the seams, Iraqi Kurds could seize the oil-rich cities of Mosul and Kirkuk. Turkey claims that Kirkuk and Mosul are dominated not by the Kurds but by ethnic Turkmen. Turkey asked the US to declare Mosul and Kirkuk ‘off-limits’ to any force but a limited contingent of US troops. What if US troops are unable to use Turkish soil as a staging ground to enter the region? Bush’s people warned. Who will stop the Kurdish groups? Who is to protect Kirkuk oil?
2. It would be very difficult for Turkey to act on its own. Kurdish groups are very likely to oppose Turkey’s entrance into the region. Such conflicts with Kurds or even other neighboring countries can be prevented if and only if Turkey acts together with the US.
3. Ankara and Washington should together ensure the international community’s stamp of approval. International legitimacy is a key for both countries. During the 1991 Gulf War, Kurdish groups entered Kirkuk and burnt down a number of state offices in order to destroy the city’s political fabric. When Saddam then attacked them, these groups took shelter in Turkey and Iran.
Since the target is Saddam himself this time, who will protect Kirkuk? If Turkey doesn’t want to take part in a war, the US might encourage Kurdish groups to enter Kirkuk. How can Turkey possibly prevent such a development?
The opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) wants Turkey to enter northern Iraq on its own. However, this might plunge the region into further chaos as Kurds and neighboring countries are likely to oppose such a move.
In order to prevent such dire scenarios, Turkey is set to keep its coalition with the US without getting involved in conflicts which are likely to break out in the region.
The first step is to get permission from Parliament for the base upgrades. Then Parliament is to take steps in accordance with Article 92, which gives it the authority to approve stationing foreign forces on Turkish soil as well as dispatching our own troops abroad.
Our government is waiting for US Secretary of State Colin Powell to present the US evidence to the UN Security Council today. If Turkey finds the US evidence convincing, I believe our government is planning to speed up its timetable. The National Security Council (NSC) last week endorsed basing foreign troops in the country and also called for government and parliamentary approval for sending Turkish forces abroad. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) should support this advisory decision. Turkish troops should enter northern Iraq to keep the US operation on a leash. This is what Ankara’s basic strategy is all about.

SOURCE: OFFICE OF THE PRIME MINISTER, DIRECTORATE GENERAL OF PRESS AND INFORMATION