There is only 984 hours left
We think Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) President Rauf Denktas and Greek President Tasos Papadopulos will start an argument in the final stages of the negotiations to prevent a solution being reached. We are watching the developments in disbelief, because we are faced with an incredibly positive event.
We still have not realized that we are in a one way tunnel.
There is no turning back.
No matter how many arguments the sides produce or turn their back on the negotiations, nothing will change at the end.
Their arguments will not produce a thing, because if they don’t reach an agreement, the U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan himself will fill in the blanks. In other words, they will be wasting precious time by arguing. The most important commodity in these coming negotiations will be time. We cannot stop the time or turn back the clock. There are only 41 days or 984 hours to reach an agreement.
We will witness two separate studies in Cyprus.
One will be political (changes in Annan plan) and the other will concentrate on technical issues.
For the next 41 days, Turkey and the KKTC have to ignore everything else and concentrate all their resources on the technical negotiations taking place on the island. We cannot win the race against the clock in any other way. Any lack of concentration might result in making irreparable mistakes. If we don’t act in haste and utilize all the expertise at our disposal, Annan will decide on the unresolved issues. And he will only be thinking of himself and completing the process before the deadline.
Don’t forget, the devil is in the detail.
To broaden the sovereignty of the Turkish side on Cyprus, to keep the number of Turkish troops on the island or to keep the number of Greek Cypriots returning to the north is important during the political negotiations, but believe me when I say that technical negotiations are more important in the long-term. Issues that are not well-thought or discussed in detail will eventually become a bigger danger to the Turks on the island.
The issues to be settled in these technical negotiations are funds coming from the European Union, the sharing of the assistance coming to the new Cyprus state, organization of tourism, each of which are financially very important.
Political negotiations will be bloody
We should expect angry exchanges and people exiting the meetings in frustration during political negotiations.
Both sides believe in the same thing:
There are many on both sides, who say: "We made great sacrifices. From now on the opposing side has to be more flexible. We have nothing else to give." Both sides believe they have made the biggest sacrifices. That’s why they are getting ready for the "final struggle" or the "final negotiation."
However, they don’t seem to be aware that no matter how much they struggle or argue, at the end, someone else will come and fill in the blanks.
The only way to stop the process is at the referenda
There are people on both sides, who want to stop this process.
They have already begun to voice their opposition.
The most important thing these people should know is that there is only one way to prevent a result and that is through the people of Cyprus rejecting the agreement at the referenda.
There is no other way out of this tunnel.
In other words, they will have to campaign publicly by telling people to say "NO" at the referenda and try to influence the vote.
I wonder if the people can reject the process, after it has gone so far.
I believe there is a greater chance for the Greek Cypriots saying "NO." However, it is highly unlikely that the Turkish Cypriots, who would be voting between remaining poor or getting richer, will reject the final document.
In other words, Turkey faces a historic 984 hours.