The US presidental election and Turkey

However, if Washington decides to send more troops to the region, the Bush administration is very likely to face greater opposition from the European Union.

If US-EU relations are damaged by the Bush administration’s insistence on a go-it-along Iraq policy, Washington is then expected to try to improve ties with Russia, China and India. If the US helps these countries with their regional crises involving Muslim groups, then the so-called ‘clash of civilizations’ will worsen.

It’s difficult to know what Kerry would do about Iraq. If he manages to unravel Iraq’s Gordian knot, he would probably pursue a more cautious Middle East policy in the future.

What concerns Turkey about Kerry is his views on the so-called Armenian genocide. Previous US presidents promised the Armenian lobby while campaigning to recognize the ‘genocide,’ but backtracked once in office. However, no candidate has gone as far as Kerry.

No matter who wins, our relations with Washington will be affected by our EU membership bid. Turkey will be quite defenseless against pressure from Brussels in the decade to come if the EU decides to start Ankara’s membership bid. So Ankara will not be able to deviate from Brussels’ demands no matter what our national interests say. Turkish-Israeli relations would probably be hurt by this. Moreover, it would be harder for Washington to make use of Turkey’s military capabilities if it seeks more unilateral interventions in the region. The EU wouldn’t want Turkey to deviate from its collective stance that Washington should end its unilateralism in the Middle East.

Some have argued that the EU would gain more leverage with the US if it accepts Turkey, a strategically located country with a large military, into its ranks. Therefore, some say that our EU accession would deal a great blow to our relations with Washington.

No matter who wins today’s elections, we should be careful in managing our relations with the world’s only superpower.”