The security briefing

In a briefing at the Office of the Chief of General Staff on Wednesday, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was told about the problems in countries surrounding Turkey and their likely effects on Turkey and Turkey’s domestic problems and their possible effect in formulating a foreign policy.

Don’t pay attention to the statement issued after the briefing saying that the PM was briefed on issues related to security as was decided during the Supreme Military Council meetings in December.

The current situation concerning the Cyprus discussions prove that there are significant differences of opinion within the military, between the military and the Foreign Ministry, within the government, between the government and the president, and among other state departments.

That’s not all. Arguments over developments in northern Iraq have increased so much that they are difficult to hide.

However, when we look at the issues addressed and those who voiced their opinions at the briefing on Wednesday, it is clear that there will be less friction at the National Security Council (MGK) meeting on Cyprus at the end of the month because the PM has been told the arguments for and against the government stance on Cyprus and the problems that could be encountered in 2004. As a result, the government, especially Erdogan, will take the arguments seriously and work on a solution. At least, we hope so.

To expand on the Cyprus issue…

The army thinks the government is not taking their counterparts on the issue of Cyprus seriously. By counterparts, they mean the Greek Cypriots, Greece, the EU and the United States. It is obvious that Turkey cannot realize its EU aspirations by merely putting on a show of sincerity regarding the Cyprus solution. The EU, the United States and the U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan will have many ways to disallow any Turkish modifications to the Annan plan. Some will say that any change in the plan could not contravene EU laws, while others will say that no fundamental changes can be made to the Annan plan. In addition, the EU is saying that if Turkey solved the Cyprus issue (you can read this as sacrifices made by Turkey to solve the issue), there will be no obstacles left preventing Turkey’s EU membership.

While it is not being voiced openly, the alternative plan presented to the government is this:

While negotiations on the Annan plan are taking place, the Greek Cypriot side can be admitted to the EU on May 1. Meanwhile the EU will contact the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) as the other founding state of Cyprus to start the accession negotiations. KKTC could use the EU funds to eliminate the gap in living standards between the two sides of the island. The trade embargo on the KKTC will be lifted. Turkey would receive a date to start the EU membership negotiations in Dec. 2004. Turkey and KKTC can become EU members at the same time.

But, can the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) government achive this?

If you take their commitment and the process into account, it is hard to give a positive answer.