The Questionable Value Of Turkey’s Eurofighter Bid

Turkey is again discussing procuring Eurofighter Typhoons as its proposed $20 billion deal to buy advanced Block 70 F-16s and modernization kits from the United States still awaits authorization more than two years after Ankara requested.

“We are working on procurement,” Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Gular told a parliamentary hearing on Thursday. “Now the U.K. and Spain are making efforts to convince Germany, (though) we are not in talks with Germany… If possible, we plan to purchase 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets.”

Foreign exports of Eurofighter jets require unanimous approval from all consortium members. Under Chancellor Olaf Shultz’s incumbent government, Germany is unlikely to accede to any such sale anytime soon.

Berlin is presently blocking a sale of 48 additional Eurofighters from Britain to Saudi Arabia. And now, likely as a direct result, Riyadh is contemplating buying 54 Dassault Rafale jets from France for the first time.

Gular’s recent statement is far from the first indication that Ankara is considering Eurofighters.

Turkey previously held talks with the U.K. over an arms package including 24-48 Eurofighters valued at over $10 billion, as reported early this year.

Analysts have long maintained that the Eurofighter would be the most viable choice for Turkey if it is denied those modern F-16s. Turkey initially requested 40 Block 70 F-16s and 79 modernization kits in October 2021, but the sale hasn’t been approved amidst a series of disagreements between Ankara and Washington. The U.S. will not likely approve the deal until Ankara approves Sweden’s admission into NATO at the very least.

Britain has long proven eager to sell Eurofighters to Turkey, an eagerness that is likely to increase if Riyadh turns to Paris for Rafales instead of those additional Typhoons Berlin continues blocking.

Analysis of Gular’s comment in The Drive stated Turkey might buy used or secondhand jets and even hinted the deal may include the earlier, less-capable Eurofighter Tranche 1.

“The Tranche 1s have an extremely limited air-to-ground capability, but they would likely be available much more quickly,” read the report. “The deal would also likely be very welcome in Spain and the United Kingdom, who would get these older aircraft off their books and free-up additional funding for modernization.”

The Drive piece is not the first article suggesting Ankara might opt for secondhand Typhoons.

A June 2022 column in Turkey’s Milliyet daily newspaper cited leaked information claiming Turkey’s Plan B, if refused those F-16s, is purchasing secondhand Eurofighters from Britain. Turkey envisions these secondhand Typhoons serving as a stopgap option until the next-generation TF Kaan it is developing enters service some time in the next decade.

That plan suggests Turkey might intend the Eurofighters to replace its remaining F-4 Phantom fighters, which Ankara initially intended to retire at the beginning of this decade. Turkey initially hoped it could acquire F-35 Lightning II stealth jets to replace those Phantoms but was banned from buying that fifth-generation aircraft after receiving advanced S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia.

Eurofighter Tranche 1 jets are hardly an adequate substitute for the cutting-edge Block 70 F-16, which has radar and other capabilities on par with fifth-generation fighters.

Furthermore, the 24 Rafale F3R fighters recently ordered by Turkey’s neighbor and rival Greece are in a league of their own compared to those early model Eurofighters, especially if the latter lacks active electronically scanned array radars, Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missiles, and Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

And, if Turkey does ultimately buy older, secondhand Typhoons, it would be an embarrassing turnaround, considering Ankara essentially mocked Athens for buying 12 of those Rafales secondhand.

On the other hand, Turkey’s motives may be more political rather than practical. By buying, or at least seriously discussing buying, Typhoons Ankara could be signaling to the United States that it is serious when it says it has other options.

Turkey’s fighter fleet is all-American, with its backbone comprising almost 300 F-16s of varying models, the third-largest fleet of that aircraft worldwide. Some Turkish officials have begun questioning the wisdom of relying so heavily on the U.S. for its fighter aircraft.

Either way, buying older, used Eurofighters would undoubtedly be a setback regardless of how it’s spun, considering Ankara had previously expected to begin fielding fifth-generation stealth fighters this decade.